Hope They're Foolin'

Reprinting items from the Russian and Iranian media is always a dicey proposition at best, but the Jerusalem Post does exactly that, with some very dangerous allegations:

The United States will be ready to launch a missile attack on Iran's nuclear facilities as soon as early this month, perhaps "from 4 a.m. until 4 p.m. on April 6," according to reports in the Russian media on Saturday.

According to Russian intelligence sources, the reports said, the US has devised a plan to attack several targets in Iran, and an assault could be carried out by launching missiles from fighter jets and warships stationed in the Persian Gulf.

Russian news agency RIA Novosti quoted a security official as saying, "Russian intelligence has information that the US Armed Forces stationed in the Persian Gulf have nearly completed preparations for a missile strike against Iranian territory."

The Russian Defense Ministry rejected the claims of an imminent attack as "myths." There was no immediate response from Washington.

Of course, there's a lot of room between "has contingency plans for attack" and "plans to attack next week". At this point, it's very difficult to contemplate the Cheney administration having anything remotely resembling the political will to do something of that nature.

Some have seen the Iranian kidnapping of British sailors as a sort of potential Gulf of Tonkin incident, or an opportunity to talk about the Geneva Conventions in one regard or another. But clearly, the purpose of seizing the British sailors was political, not military, and as such, there's no reason to assume that they will be treated badly. There's no upside for the Iranians to do anything untoward; this seems like a pretty naked ploy to wedge the Brits further away from us, and isolate us in the region.

The fact that we've mostly shown restraint in this episode is probably more indicative of our limited range of viable choices, than any honest desire to work things out. We're stuck; Blair no longer has the credibility to anything but negotiate from a weakened position, nor can we get anything out of him by leaning on him from the background. The Iranians don't have to get all Jack Bauer on anyone; they're holding most of the cards right now

Seen in that context, and in the context of the surge conditions clearly worsening as the whack-a-mole game continues, the shit-or-git window for any "hope" of effective aggression against the Iranians is closing, not opening. And again, as much as the Cheneyites would like to indulge their "flight forward" impulses, that window has pretty much closed as well. They are politically stuck, hobbled by effective opposition even within their own party, and the clear pattern of corrpution and loyalty over competence as an operative dynamic. The usual rally-round-the-flag dynamic, present in even bullshit military actions, would likely be nonexistent in this climate, if we decided to do a surprise bombing run on the Isfahan facility or some such thing.

Still....

The reports come as the Iranian chief of staff, Hassan Fayrouz Abadi, was quoted on Saturday by Iran's Fars news agency warning leaders of Arab countries that Israel plans to open a "suicidal attack" on its neighbors this summer, to "prevent the withdrawal of the US troops from Iraq and the area."

"I warn the dear leaders and Muslim brothers in the neighboring countries of the occupied territories that this suicidal attack of the Zionists is threatening them," he said.

The countries in danger, he said, were "Lebanon and Syria, and later Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia."

This is the usual internal rabble-rousing Iranian officials indulge in on a regular basis, just as we do here. Still, it may end up being pretext for another summer of love on the Lebanon-Israel border, which as always could erupt in a wider conflagration.

Also, any future plans for American drawdown or withdrawal are going to have to take into account Iraq's near-future situation as a proxy fight between Sunni Saudi and Shi'a Iran, with the oil supplies of all three countries plus Kuwait instantly thrown into contention should the proxy fight heat up. There's just no way around that, and it's entirely likely that such a situation could quickly draw Israel into the mix. Big fucking problem.

Thanks again, values voters!