NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

2-2 last week, the Titans' upset of the Chefs being a nice surprise. As always, wager responsibly.

Saturday 1/13 1:40 PM Atlanta Falcons (11-6) (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3):  This should be a good game between two pretty evenly matched teams. Both the Falcons and the Eagles feature solid, well-balanced offenses paired with aggressive, stingy defenses (both defenses finished top-10 in most major defensive categories). Though the Eagles were a better team with Carson Wentz starting at QB, Nick Foles is a solid veteran, and probably the best backup in the league. After watching them travel cross-country to dismantle the Rams' number-one offense, though, Atlanta seems to have momentum. Unless it's a full-on blizzard, I'd take the Falcons and the points.

Final Score:  Falcons 27, Eagles 17.

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5:15 PM Tennessee Titans (10-7) at New England Patriots (13-3) (-13.5):  Second only to watching Emperor Snowflake get frog-marched out of the White House to spend twenty more years in Leavenworth before dying poor, broke, and alone, nothing would give me more pleasure than to watch Little Tommy Tuck Rule and his Facking Patsies get their shit pushed in by any other team, every goddamned time. Unfortunately, they have the luck of the devil and the refs in their pocket. The Titans do have excellent offensive and defensive lines, and they did just knock out the Chefs in Peckerhead Arrowhead Stadium, but unless they can pressure Tuck Rule enough to make some mistakes early on, and then hold on for the inevitable fourth-quarter comeback, it's probably going to be ugly.

Final Score:  Patsies 34, Titans 20.

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Sunday 1/14 10:00 AM Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3) (-7):  I don't hate the Steelers quite as much as the Patsies, but this is another one where I have a clear favorite. But given their lackluster performance last week at home against the hapless Bills, the Jaguars probably don't have much of a prayer in Pittsburgh, although the Steelers turned the ball over five times in a 30-9 loss in Pittsburgh on October 8th. All-world WR Antonio Brown is recuperating from a partially torn calf muscle and an illness, so if Jacksonville is going to have any chance in this, it's going to be with their top-rated pass defense shutting Brown and the other Steelers receivers down.

Final Score:  Steelers 31, Jaguars 13.

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1:40 PM New Orleans Saints (12-5) at Minnesota Vikings (13-3) (-5):  The Vikings have done more with less than any team in the NFL this year, and it has paid off well for them. After season-ending injuries to top RB pick Dalvin Cook, and QBs Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater, journeyman QB Case Keenum stepped into the proverbial "game manager" role and led Minnesota to a 13-3 record. Keenum's 3,547 passing yards and 22-7 TD-INT ratio are career highs for him, but the Vikes' real strength is their defense, which was #1 in the league for points allowed (15.8 ppg). The Saints are much improved from last year, especially on defense, and rookie back Alvin Kamara is an exciting, dynamic player who should win Offensive Rookie of the Year. These teams met in Week 1 in Minnesota, and the Vikings won 29-19. The outcome this time will probably be much the same, though the Saints might beat the spread.

Final Score:  Vikings 24, Saints 20.

NFL Wild Card Predictions

It's been a strange year for pro football, in some part due to Clownigula stoking his freak-show base. More than that, though, there are elements in the game itself, as well as its participants, that are starting to accumulate on the consciences of fans:  the violence and criminality of some of the star players; the CTE and other physical tolls taken on the players; the season-ending injuries to new stars such as DeShaun Watson and Carson Wentz; the crummy ref calls that always seem to favor the Patsies; the idiotic cracking down on touchdown celebrations; and yes, the stupid polarization of the fans over an issue that affects no one.

And the fucking commercials -- Jesus Hamster Christ, you can only watch so many goddamned insurance and fast food and truck commercials in a fucking lifetime, crammed ass-over-teakettle into a three-hour window, over and over and over again till you're ready to eat a Desert Eagle. It's just not worth it anymore, to an increasing degree.

Some of it is just market saturation and corporate overkill, but in general, the league and the sport itself seem to be on the cusp of a long decline. Will Leitch covered a lot of this in a terrific article around Thanksgiving, but the broad stroke is that we're watching young men damage themselves irreparably, and whether enough fans feel guilty enough about that to watch less or not at all, the bottom line is that far fewer kids are playing youth football already. Wait and see how that dilutes the overall talent level by the time they're of age to play pro sports, if they haven't turned it into flag football before then.

All that said, this past week has had some potentially interesting and cool news for the NFL. The Patsies might lose Belichick to the Giants over the Jimmy Garoppolo trade. Jon Gruden is finally coming back to the Raiders for a 10-year/$100M contract, and maybe a piece of the team. I genuinely look forward to the Patsies being terrible and the Raiders finally winning a Super Bowl. But I also realize that there won't be many more seasons where football will still be fun to watch. The returns seem to be diminishing at a faster rate.

But for the time being, the pigskin prognostications are still fun to do, so let's kick off the next few weekends of random guesses (all times PST):

(10/6) (1:30 PM) Tennessee at Kansas City (-8.5):  Neither of these teams will go very far in the playoffs, so it's hard to invest too much time in stat-mining. The basic premise is that the Chefs are tough at home and DeMarco Murray is injured. Both QBs have been playing reasonably well this season, nothing special, and Kansas City's secondary is banged up, so Marcus Mariota should be able to pile up some passing yards. The Titans should beat the spread, but that's about it.

Final Score:  Chiefs 27, Titans 21.

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(5:15 PM) Atlanta at Los Angeles Rams (-6):  The return of football to LA strikes me as a positive, for some reason. Sure, the Rams' and Chargers' owners are bastards, but they're all bastards. It's in the league charter as a condition of membership. Maybe the only owner who's not a total shit is Oakland's Mark Davis, who dresses like an eight-year-old and is moving the team to Vegas.

At any rate, the Rams have experienced a nice turnaround this year, and are fun to watch. Jared Goff appears comfortable with the offense now, and Todd Gurley racked up 2,093 total yards from scrimmage and 19 TDs, so it's understandable that Rams fans are having visions of Marshall Faulk. The drastic improvement in Goff and Gurley can at least in part be attributed to the free-agency signing of left tackle Andrew Whitworth, a Pro Bowl mauler from the Bengals whose absence was certainly noticed in Cincinnati.

After blowing a 28-3 lead in the second half of the Super Bowl, the Falcons shook off the hangover and managed to finish 10-6, which was still only good enough for third in the punishing NFC South division. QB Matt Ryan is having a bit of an off year (for him), but is still one of the top passers in the league, and the running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are solid if unspectacular, combining for 2,109 total yards and 16 TDs. It's not going to be enough to get past the Rams' pounding defense.

Final Score:  Rams 37, Falcons 24.

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(10/7) (10:00 AM) Buffalo at Jacksonville (-8.5):  The resurgent Jaguars, like the Rams and Eagles in the NFC, are shaking up the usual collection of teams that make the postseason. For that matter, so are the Bills, a one-time perennial playoff team that is making the first postseason appearance in 17 years. But where the Bills essentially backed into their playoff spot, Jacksonville actually looks improved, with oft-maligned QB Blake Bortles connecting with his receivers much more consistently and seeming to find a rhythm.

The Jaguars beat up on Baltimore and Pittsburgh early in the season, but dropped their final two games against the 49ers and Titans, resting some of their starters for the playoffs. (The Rams did the same thing in their season finale against the Niners.) Sometimes that works well, but with young teams needing consistency and momentum, sometimes it throws them off. However, Jacksonville went 6-2 at home and has the league's best pass defense, while Buffalo has struggled all year offensively, so this should go the Jaguars' way.

Final Score:  Jaguars 31, Buffalo 13.

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(1:40 PM) Carolina at New Orleans (-7):  Both of these teams finished atop the NFC South with 11-5 records, but since New Orleans won both regular-season matchups, they claim the division crown and hence home field advantage for this game. After starting the season with back-to-back losses against the Vikings and Patriots, the Saints rediscovered their offense and went on a tear. Rookie sensation Alvin Kamara forms a potent rushing tandem with Mark Ingram; each back accounted for over 1,500 total yards and a dozen touchdowns. QB Drew Brees was his usual efficient self, posting 4,334 passing yards, and a respectable 23-8 TD-INT ration.

The Panthers, for their part, have gotten it done with a less-powerful offense, with most of their victories being within a touchdown. Their performance last week in Atlanta, with a critical playoff seeding on the line, does not bode well for them -- QB Cam Newton was held to 180 passing yards and threw 3 interceptions in a 22-10 loss. As mentioned, the Saints already beat the Panthers twice, by a total of 31 points, and there's not really an indication that that's going to change.

Final Score:  Saints 31, Panthers 20.

NFL Championship Game Predictions

NFC Championship Game
Green Bay Packers (12-6) at Atlanta Falcons (12-5) (3:05 PM EST)
Spread: ATL -5.5

In the wild card and division rounds, my semi-educated guesses prognostications were 3-1 each time, getting pretty close on most of the final scores as well. On both weekends, it was the upstart Packers who thwarted my guesswork. This is where that all ends.

Green Bay lost in Atlanta in a 33-32 squeaker, way back in Week 8 (10/30). But injuries have taken their toll since then, mostly on Green Bay. The Packers have no running game to speak of (20th in average rushing yards per game), and their defensive backfield is in tatters (31st in passing yards allowed). They barely hung on to beat the Cowboys despite building a 21-3 lead early on, and leading 28-13 in the fourth quarter. Rodgers has done a hell of a job getting the team this far, but he's battling the flu (spread was 3.5 at the beginning of the week), and can't do everything by himself. The Falcons are going to close out the Georgia Dome with their first trip to the Super Bowl in nearly twenty years.

Predicted Score: Falcons 41, Packers 24.

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AFC Championship Game
Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) at New England Patriots (15-2) (6:40 PM EST)
Spread: NE -6

I don't care for either of these teams, so let's just start this by saying that I hope the Patsies lose by five touchdowns, and then the Steelers get blown out in the Super Bowl by whichever NFC team makes it. But assessing the likely outcome of this game is a much different matter.

The Steelers looked inept and inefficient in derping their way to six field goals and no touchdowns, beating the Chiefs 18-16 at Arrowhead. But the flip side of that is that Chefs' DC Bob Sutton is an underrated strategist whose schemes and personnel led the league in generating turnovers, and did a hell of a job on their red-zone defense, keeping the so-called Killer Bees (Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell, and Antonio Brown) out of the end zone.

New England visited Pittsburgh in Week 7 (10/23) and came out with a 27-16 victory, but Roethlisberger was recuperating from knee surgery and did not play in that game.

Throughout the regular season, New England's o-line did a decent job of keeping Brady upright, but in the first half of last week's divisional round game against Houston, the Texans' pass rush exposed some holes, knocked down Brady eight times and forced him to throw two interceptions (he had thrown only 2 INT all season). The Steelers have one of the most disruptive linebacking crews with James Harrison, Ryan Shazier, and Bud Dupree, all of them fast, vicious hitters who will keep Brady on his heels throughout. But the FACKIN' PATSIES always seem to find a way.

Predicted Score: Patriots 37, Steelers 27.

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Some good matchups this weekend. All times EST

Saturday's Games (1/14/17)
Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) at Atlanta Falcons (11-5) (4:35 PM)
Spread:  ATL -6.5

The Seahawks won the regular-season matchup 26-24 on October 16th. But that was in Seattle, and this game is one of the last to take place in the soon-to-be-defunct Georgia Dome (because no municipality can resist the temptation of gulling taxpayers to destroy an "ancient" but serviceable structure, and spend a billion or so on a monument with all the current bells and whistles). Ahem.

The Falcons won five of their last six games (four of those by at least 17 points), and earned a rest last week with their #2 playoff seed. They are top five in the major offensive categories, including their league-leading average of 33.8 points per game. This has helped them make up for their lousy defense, which is in the bottom quartile in points allowed (27th), total yards allowed (25th), and passing yards allowed (28th).

Seattle should be able to exploit that defense to some degree, with all-pro TE Jimmy Graham healthy at the right time, but the Seahawks' offense is way too banged up everywhere else to maintain effectiveness. Their rushing attack has rotated through injuries all year, and their offensive line is shot (which is why RB Marshawn Lynch chose to retire rather than return to the team).

Falcons WR Julio Jones is having a career season, and he and Seahawks star CB Richard Sherman seem to genuinely hate each other. Jones and Sherman should be the key matchup here, and don't be surprised if they eventually scrap and one or both of them get tossed.

Predicted Score:  Falcons 38, Seahawks 21.

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Houston Texans (10-7) at New England Patriots (14-2) (8:15 PM)
Spread:  NE -16.0

I hate to say it, but short of the Texans' league-leading defense (1st in total yards allowed, 2nd in passing yards) snapping Tommy Tuck Rule in the first quarter, this is probably going to be a blowout. Despite losing Brady for the first four games of the season, the Patsies have been their usual selves -- systematic, grimly efficient, compiling the league's best record and the easy odds-on favorite to bring home the Lombardi Trophy for the fifth time in Brady's career.

That New England manages their high level of play with no real superstars besides Brady makes it all the more impressive/annoying. All-world TE Rob Gronkowski has been injured more often than not, and was placed on injured reserve on Dec. 4. Despite that, the Patsies are top five in points, total yards, and passing yards, and their defense is top ten in most categories. With third-string QB Jacoby Brissett subbing for Brady back in Week 3, New England hammered Houston 27-0.

The Texans seem to know that they over-achieved this year, essentially overpaying for QB Brock Osweiler and backing into the top slot in one of the worst divisions in the league, capping that string with a wild-card game against a Raiders team that was worthless without QB Derek Carr. Houston's luck is going to run out today, and they probably won't even beat the spread.

Predicted Score:  Patriots 35, Texans 9.

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Sunday's Games (1/15/17)
Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Dallas Cowboys (13-3)(4:40 PM)
Spread: Dallas -5

The Packers overcame a 5-5 start to run the table to win their division and get a wild-card home game against a Giants team whose receivers should have spent more time preparing for the game, and less time on their party yacht in Miami. The Cowboys, behind rookies QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, have dropped only three games -- two to the aforementioned Giants (by a total of four points) and a meaningless season-ender that allowed Dallas to rest their stars.

One of Dallas' victories was at Green Bay, a 30-16 smackdown on October 16th. But the Packers seem to have found their mojo at the opportune time, and QB Aaron Rodgers, even without injured #1 wideout Jordy Nelson, is an experienced playoff winner. Both teams' defenses are miserable against the pass (Green Bay is 31st in yards allowed, Dallas is 26th), but the Cowboys are first against the rush and fifth in points allowed. If the Cowboys can contain Rodgers' scrambling and improve skills, they have a pretty good shot at moving to the conference championship round.

Predicted Score: Cowboys 34, Packers 30.

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Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) (8:20 PM)
Spread:  KC -1.0

This was originally scheduled as the early Sunday game, but game time has been moved back for this one, due to the ice storms in the Midwest. The Steelers blew up the Chefs 43-14 back on October 2nd in Pittsburgh, but Kansas City is strong at home, and their offense has found a groove with the development of TE Travis Kelce (who inexplicably has his own Bachelor-type reality show, because if there's one thing most NFL players have difficulty with, it's getting pussy) and the explosive play of rookie WR/PR/scatback Tyreek Hill, who has been shredding defenses and special teams throughout the season.

The Steelers have excellent playmakers of their own, with RB LeVeon Bell and WR Antonio Brown having outstanding seasons. Kansas City all-star DBs Marcus Peters and Eric Berry will have their hands full trying to cover Brown, and QB Ben Roethlisberger seems to be coming back from injuries slowly but surely.

Both teams have solid, upper-quartile offenses and defenses, so what this may come down to is playoff experience and quarterback play. Alex Smith has thrived under coach Andy Reid, but Roethlisberger already has two Super Bowl victories under his belt, and is fearless at launching the deep ball to Brown, who runs routes as rapidly and well as any receiver in the league. This should be a close, well-played game between two evenly-matched opponents.

Predicted Score:  Steelers 21, Chiefs 17.

Super Bowl 49 Prediction

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks (pick, O/U 47½): With Vegas betting outlets moving the spread to a no-line "pick 'em", you might assume that this will be another one of those nail-biter Super Bowls that the Tom Brady-era Patsies are known for. After all, the three SB games they've won (SB 36, 38, and 39) were each by just three points, and the two (SB 42 and 46) they lost against the Giants were by three and four points respectively.

Now, I hate both teams (for different reasons), and will probably watch just the bare minimum of the game because I'm still recovering from being sick all last week, and there's nothing else on. So I don't have a dog in this fight. But these really are the two best teams right now in the league, certainly the best in their respective conferences, peaking at the right time.

No team and quarterback has done more with less on-field talent and roster stability than Brady has with what the Patsies have given him. Without a marquee receiver for at least two straight seasons, and a revolving door of running backs and defensive backs, Brady has managed to keep New England in strong contention year after year. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has finally come back after a barrage of injuries and surgeries to post one of his best seasons, and the Patriots had solid numbers in all major offensive and defensive categories, again without a ton of elite talent. Under-inflated balls might help here and there, but most of New England's victories throughout the regular season were blowouts.

On the other hand, where the Patsies have been very good, the Seahawks have been great, especially on the defensive side of the ball, finishing first and third in pass and run yards allowed respectively. They also finished first in running the ball, thanks to a career year from media mute Marshawn Lynch. Lynch's performance art antics aside, his "Beast Mode" persona is more than just hype, as the hapless Green Bay Packers found out the hard way last week, after holding Seattle scoreless in the first half.

It makes sense that observers might see two evenly matched teams, but I believe a closer look will show one team on its way up (that would be Seattle), while the other is on its way down (at least in terms of its usual expectations). It's not hard to understand why some might still pick the Patsies to squeak this one out, but I don't see it; in fact, the only reason the Packers were able to hang on as long as they did last week was because of a barrage of very uncharacteristic Seahawk turnovers in the first half. Wide receiver Jermaine Kearse had two embarrassing passes clank right off his hands into the arms of Green Bay defenders last week, but he also has made some brilliant catches throughout the playoffs, including last week's game-winner in overtime.

So it won't be the skull-fucking the Seahawks put on the hapless Denver Broncos last year, and there will probably be some heroic comeback attempt by Brady late in the game, I'm putting $50 on Seattle and the over.

Final score: Seattle 33, New England 20.

[As always, backpedaling and ballsplaining will be after the game, depending on how entertaining Katy Perry's wardrobe malfunction turns out.]

[Update 10:30 PST:  I don't think I've ever seen a team completely shit the bed quite this badly before in the big game, right up to the very end, culminating in what has to be the most all-time baffling play call ever. You have the best running back in the league and he's rolling hard, you're on the 1-yard line, with two timeouts and 30 seconds on the clock. Literally all Seattle had to do was give Marshawn Lynch three tries to punch it in. As soon as we saw them going into a shotgun formation the wife and I turned to each other and laughed, "What the fuck are they doing?". The brawl on the subsequent Patsies victory kneel-down was just icing on the cake; the Seahawks blew this thing even before that dumb play call, and they knew it. At the very least, that cost Russell Wilson a lot of money heading into his off-season contract negotiations.]

NFL Championship Game Predictions

I know, I've talked some trash -- and will continue to do so in the future -- about the nature and culture of the NFL, about its propensity for brushing over the off-field incidents, the catastrophic injuries, the slave system of the NCAA that feeds the machine by making unholy sums of money literally off the bodies of broke college kids, etc.

But the competition is the thing; I've been a football fan since I was like seven or eight years old, and so as always, despite my many misgivings about this (or indeed any professional) sport, here are the usual predictions. I would have hit last week's divisional games (and correctly, except for the upstart Colts surprising the Broncos at home, and weirdly sending that latter team into a full tailspin), but real-life circumstances have gotten amazingly busy lately (mostly very good, but still very busy).

Anyway, here are my semi-educated guessesinfallible predictions:

Green Bay (+7.5) at Seattle:  Both of these teams began the 2014 regular season with high expectations -- indeed, this matchup was highly anticipated back in September (the teams were matched up as the very first regular season game of 2014, with the Seahawks winning 36-16). However, both teams got off to very rough (for them) starts, identically going 5-3 in the first half of the season, then each getting hot at the right time and going 7-1 in the second half of the season.

So:  identical regular-season records at 12-4, both teams have elite quarterbacks and excellent defenses, indicating a close game. However, Seattle is very strong at home, losing only twice in the last three seasons (25-2 including playoffs), their defense is fantastic where Green Bay's is merely very good, Marshawn Lynch is a more punishing runner than Eddie Lacy (who again is still very good), and so on.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers refused to challenge trash-talking Seahawks CB Richard Sherman in their regular-season meeting, and as Rodgers appeared to be pretty banged-up last week against their lucky-break win against the Dallas Cowboys, Sherman may have yet another easy afternoon, freeing him up to blitz and harass Rodgers even more. Packers rookie WR Davante Adams is a budding star, and should have at least one or two big plays, but it won't be quite enough.

Also, too:  Did you see what Seahawk safety Kam Chancellor did last week, not once but twice on two consecutive plays? First half should stay close, but Seattle should pull away later in the game.

Final Score:  Seahawks 31, Packers 17.

Indianapolis (+6.5) at New England:  As a lifelong fan of the hapless Oakland Raiders, my disdain of Tom Brady is duly chronicled, primarily due to the refereeing travesty commonly known as The Tuck Rule Game. (As folks are fond of saying about anything and everything, Never Forget.) Ray Lewis had a valid point when he noted that Brady owes a good chunk of his Hall of Fame career to that particular game; it was in the media leading up to that game that coach Bill Belichick had questions about Brady and the Patriots' spotty defense, and it's more than likely that Brady would have been relegated or even traded, losing a home playoff game on a 4th-quarter fumble.

Anyhoo, despite all that, Brady has certainly performed as a top-tier QB for his career, and in the last couple seasons especially, without a true #1 wide receiver, has pushed the Patsies into the playoffs again and again, almost by force of sheer will. Non-murderous tight end Rob Gronkowski has returned to form after significant injury surgeries the last couple seasons, and is Brady's go-to guy.

Andrew Luck and the Colts are making a strong case already to be the AFC dynasty of the future, as Brady and Peyton Manning near retirement. The Colts still need a reliable #1 running back, having wasted a #1 pick in the trade for Cleveland's Trent Richardson last year. T.Y. Hilton has emerged as a #1 wide receiver, but they still need a complementary receiver opposite Hilton. Defensively, Indy is in the middle of the league, slightly better than New England against the pass, slightly worse against the run.

It's tempting to call for an upset on this one -- and it wouldn't be that surprising, but the Pats have the experience and the home-field advantage, and whatever deal with Beelzebub (and the refs) that took place over a decade ago.

Final Score:  Patriots 34, Colts 31.

[Updates and SB predictions immediately following the AFC game tonight.]

[Update:  Even when I'm right, I manage to get it a little wrong -- while I picked both winning teams, I had picked Seattle and Indy to beat the spread. Instead, the increasingly insufferable Seahawks played one of their worst, most inept games in several years, only to stage an epic 4th-quarter comeback, while the hapless Colts were hopelessly overmatched from the outset. Anyway, we get the expected Super Bowl matchup of Seahawks-Patriots, to which half the football-watching nation wonders, can't they both lose? We can at least be consoled by the fact that Tom Brady is getting closer and closer to retirement, while the Seahawks are about to have to make some tough and expensive decisions in free agency. Tune in on game day for our amazing Super Bowl prediction, and Katy Perry's cans.]

Super Bowl 48 Prediction

This year's matchup is sort of the turd icing on your typical Raiders fan's cake -- a hated divisional rival versus a former divisional rival (Seattle, of course, was moved from the AFC West to the NFC West in the 2002 league realignment.) However, any real football fan can appreciate the classic strength-versus-strength matchup here, with Denver's record-setting offense going against Seattle's aggressive, bone-crushing defense.

Casual fans got to meet all-pro trash-talker Richard Sherman in the wake of Sherman's game-saving coverage at the end of the NFC Championship Game, rousing the usual knuckle-dragging fucktards out of their caves for some routine racism. Just a reminder that, to (very) loosely paraphrase Faulkner, it isn't 2014 everywhere; in some places, it's more like 1864. While I found Sherman's amped-up woofing off-putting, to say the least, the fact of the matter is that he backs up his trash talk with his play, which is all any fan of the game can ask.

Further, Sherman turns out to be a decent guy, a sharp kid who made it from Compton to Stanford and tries to serve as a role model for other inner-city kids looking for a ladder to climb. He's an outstanding student of the game, and there's no doubt he's spent the last couple weeks watching how Peyton Manning deploys his fleet of receivers. Sherman will almost certainly have an impact in the game, either a pick or some key tackles, or some combination.

But assuming the weather is not too terrible (and it appears just to be very cold, but no rain or snow), the odds are with Denver. The Seahawks' defense only allowed about a third of opponents' red zone offensive drives to end in touchdowns, so expect some of the Broncos's efforts to peter out into field goals, diluting their impact somewhat. And to compound the "strength-versus-strength" trope with even more specificity, consider this:  Denver's offense is first in the league in converting on third and fourth down, and Seattle's defense is also first in preventing such conversions.

(If you're a sports-stat geek, you are probably already aware of Football Outsiders, but if not, you'll love it. They compile a mind-boggling array of numbers, but in a way that doesn't require a PhD in statistics to comprehend.)

Anyway, it seems that the Seahawks' offense might be the weak link here, not by a great deal, but in the sense that they just won't be quite able to keep up with Manning and the Broncos' offense. Manning is infamously the most astute and obsessive film student in the game, and you can bet he's dissected Seattle's powerhouse secondary just as much as Sherman has picked apart the Denver offense. Look for Manning to victimize safety Earl Thomas, with WR DeMaryious Thomas over the top, and TE Julius Thomas (yeah, I know, all these Thomases, and none of them related, afaik) up the seam. Earl Thomas has been burned in coverage a few times over the past month or so by opposing QBs, and so will probably be considered a point of vulnerability to exploit by Manning.

Early looks at this matchup made me assume a slow first half, followed by Denver breaking away in the second half, but I think Seattle may keep it closer after all, if returning speedster Percy Harvin can break even a couple of big plays off for them. Denver's run D is weak, and Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch seems to be in his trademark "beast mode" lately.

To the extent that I have a dog in this fight, I would like to see Seattle win it, if only because they have never done so before, and because it would be slap in the face of the twittard racists (who I sincerely hope will kindly do the world a huge fucking favor and die before they reproduce). But Manning will probably come out of this with his second ring (which would be the first time a QB has won a SB with two different teams), though the Seahawks will make him work for it. It should be an excellent game regardless.

Prediction:  Broncos 31, Seahawks 30.

[Update 10:00 PM PST: Holy shit, talk about being wrong on almost every factor. The only thing I got right was that Seattle's defense was just unstoppable -- getting a safety on the very first play from scrimmage, holding Denver to just 11 offensive yards in their first 3 possessions, and shutting the Broncos out until the very end of the 3rd quarter, when they finally allowed them their only points for the night. Denver's secondary was banged up, playing backups in mostly soft coverage, and Russell Wilson took advantage of that with a decisive performance.

This may be a case of two organizational ships passing in the night, going in different directions. Seattle is young, and has relatively few key free agents in this coming off-season, while Denver in general -- and Manning in particular -- skew older, and may lose key slot receiver Eric Decker to free agency. Certainly the Broncos should be expected to at least make the playoffs next season, but the Seahawks will easily be the Vegas odds-on favorite for another full run.]

NFL Championship Game Predictions

Busy weekend, so I didn't have time to check with any of the stat sites I normally rely on for close analysis of these two games. Also, too, since I dislike all four teams, I find myself not really caring much.

Still, it's a chance to guess somewhat correctly, so here goes. As always, caveat bettor.

AFC Championship Game -- New England (+5.5) at Denver:  If the NFL were the Catholic Church, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning would be living canonical saints. As much as I dislike both teams, I have to admit that both QBs have made careers out of making the teams around them better, with rigorous study and skill.

Yes, the Patsies pwned a marginally competent Indianapolis defense back in Boston last week, but Denver, to say the least, ain't Boston. Yes, the eventual Super Bowl champ Baltimore Ravens went into Denver for last year's conference championship and came out victorious -- but with some seriously lucky breaks. Don't see that happening this time around, but Brady and Manning will at least keep it interesting, and if you're betting spread, the Pats should beat the 5½-point spread, but that won't be quite enough. Omaha! Omaha!

Prediction:  Broncos 38, Patriots 35.

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NFC Championship Game -- San Francisco (+3.5) at Seattle:  Given the Seahawks' fearsome 15-1 home record over the last two seasons, and the Niners' wild-card status making this an exhausting third playoff weekend in a row, it seems like the spread should be larger. Yet San Francisco is surging at the same time Seattle has hit a relative slump. Seattle's lone home loss came at the hands of an Arizona Cardinals team that narrowly missed the playoffs, and a then-winless Tampa Bay team took them to overtime during mid-season, so that home record may not be as bulletproof as the record implies.

In their last 5 games (4 regular season and last week's playoff game hosting the Saints), Seattle QB Russell Wilson has thrown 4 TD and 3 INTs, and been sacked 17 games. San Francisco's success has been contingent on aggressive defense and controlled QB play from Colin Kaepernick that minimizes mistakes and gives underrated RB Frank Gore time to wear down opposing defenses. Still, Seattle's own punishing D should be able to salvage this, and get them into their first Super Bowl since the 2006 season. But if there's an upset to be had today, it's here.

Prediction:  Seahawks 21, 49ers 20.


[Update 1/19 8:15 PST:  Well, finally go 100% for the day, though not without some help from the refs in Seattle. And what the fuck is up with Richard Sherman? Good player, might want to dial it down, at least until he actually has that ring. We'll have some Super Bowl predictionsguesses for you the day before game time. In the meantime, back to your regularly scheduled programming.]

NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

New Orleans (+8) at Seattle:  As close to a dead lock as you'll find this weekend, this replay of the Week 13 matchup will probably not be as bad as the 34-7 throttling the Saints endured, but still won't be pretty. Seattle has the #1 pass (and #1 overall) defense in the league; while New Orleans' #2 pass D keeps them in this, they have been vulnerable to the run all year. Look for Marshawn Lynch to power through early and often. Seattle's infamously loud stadium will probably thump into Puget Sound seconds after the game concludes.

Prediction:  Seahawks 31, Saints 13.

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Indianapolis (+7) at New England:  This is the only game of the four this weekend where the teams did not play each other during the regular season. My loathing for all thing Brady and Patsies is deep and abiding, and well-chronicled and archived, so I won't belabor it. Suffice to say, though, that Brady and his team have gotten it done despite an epically hard-luck season; after shelling out record cash for their all-world tandem of tight ends, Aaron Hernandez sits in jail awaiting trial on first-degree murder charges, and Rob Gronkowski, after going through four forearm surgeries and a back surgery last offseason, is out again, this time with a torn ACL and MCL.

After being that snakebitten, and having no true #1 WR or RB, somehow the Pats managed to go 12-4, although they played just four playoff-bound teams in the regular season (winning two, each by three points). However, New England closed strong in their final two games, and did not lose at home all season. After their astounding comeback last weekend, it would be nice to see the Colts power into Boston, kick ass and take names, but it's unrealistic to expect T.Y. Hilton to put up 224 yards every game, and Andrew Luck has no other big-play receivers to throw to. The Colts were streaky all season, beating good teams and then getting blown out by the Rams and Cardinals. Hate to say it, but take the Pats and the points.

Prediction:  Patriots 31, Colts 20.

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San Francisco (-1) at Carolina:  Apparently the jury is still out on Cam Newton; nothing else explains the 49ers being favored here. Carolina beat San Francisco 10-9 back in Week 10, at Candlestick, and the Panthers' defense is second only to Seattle's in rushing and total yards. Since a 1-3 start, Carolina has only lost once, a 31-13 defeat in New Orleans, despite having the statistically toughest schedule (based on opponents' 2012 records) in the league. The Niners showed up and performed well in the frigid tundra of Green Bay last week, but a cross-country road trip to face a well-rested team might just be a bit much to ask.

Prediction:  Panthers 16, 49ers 13.

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San Diego (+9.5) at Denver:  Not counting the SF-Carolina line, which I consider erroneous, this game is the most likely to be an upset. Odd fact: the other three teams still in the AFC Playoffs (Colts, Patriots, Chargers) are the three teams that beat the Broncos in the 2013 regular season. Of these, only San Diego beat the Broncos in Denver, just a few weeks ago. In that 27-20 victory, the Chargers were the only team all season to hold the record-setting Donks' offense below 400 yards.

Other odd facts:  San Diego OC Ken Whisenhunt was the Steelers' OC in 2005 when that #6 seeded team (as the Chargers are) barnstormed through three road games (including Denver, for the AFC Championship) to eventually win a Super Bowl; Peyton Manning has a 9-11 playoff record overall, and 8 one-and-done postseasons; since 1990, the #1 seed in the AFC has won just 2 (of 23) Super Bowls, and been knocked out in the first playoff game 10 times; Denver has a dead-even (zero) turnover differential, almost unheard-of for a 13-3 team. Manning fumbled a record (for him) ten times this season, losing six, including one against San Diego in Week 15. This one is ripe for the taking, if the Chargers want it badly enough.

Prediction:  Chargers 31, Denver 30.


[Update 1/12 10:00 PST:  So much for the Panthers' defense. The swagger that they rode through the first half got jujitsued against them in the second half by a couple of excruciatingly long, patient Niner drives, until Carolina finally started losing their shit, getting stupid penalties and blowing coverage and tackles. If San Francisco can keep up their current momentum, they can and should give Seattle a run for their money; only the weather and a little bit of luck prevented the Saints from catching up to the Seahawks yesterday.


As for the AFC matchups, obviously I was pulling for San Diego, but they couldn't quite close the deal, and they would have been chewed up and spit out in Boston next week anyway. It pains me to acknowledge this, but the AFC Championship Game matchup really will be between the two best teams in the conference, taking into consideration that there are only a few teams in the conference that are even solid, much less consistently good. We'll see how the week and the weather go, and predict accordingly next weekend for the Super Bowl matchup.]

NFL Wild Card Predictions

Have not bothered to write any football stuff this season yet, as my team, the hapless Oakland Raiders, have been mostly unwatchable and utterly wretched for more than a full decade now, and life is simply too short.

So now that the playoffs have begun, let's take a stab at some semi-educated picks. As always, no wagering.

Kansas City (-1.5) at Indianapolis:  Since the Colts just beat the Chefs down in Arrowhead two weeks ago, and this game is being played in Indy, your guess is as good as mine as to why KC is favored at all for this. Neither team had a particularly rough schedule this season, and the Colts went 6-2 at home (though it should be noted that one of those losses was a 38-8 ass-kicking at the hands of a thoroughly mediocre Rams team).

The line of thinking may be that the Colts' offense is hamstrung by a lousy running game and only one decent wide receiver; their #2 WR, Darrius Heyward-Bey, has had a number of critical drops, and Luck appears to have lost confidence in him. The Colts certainly had a strong first half of the season, beating likely Super Bowl opponents Seattle and Denver in Weeks 5 and 7 respectively. But since their Week 8 bye, the only team with a winning record the Colts have been able to beat are the aforementioned Chefs.

Andy Reid is a cagey strategist with solid playoff experience, and this should be closer than the previous meeting, but I think the Colts squeak this one out, unless they completely whiff on containing dangerous Chefs RB Jamaal Charles. There's always an upset or two in the course of the playoffs, and technically this qualifies as one of them.

Prediction:  Colts 21, Chiefs 17.

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New Orleans (+3) at Philadelphia:  Another surprising spread; while I agree with Philly as the favorite, any time a slumping dome team heads into a surging outdoor team in the middle of a serious cold snap, you should be looking at a minimum spread of 6-7 points. Factor in that the Saints have one of the worst home-road offensive differentials among any of the playoff teams, while the Eagles appear to have mastered Chip Kelly's innovative offense, after a slow start. No doubt part of New Orleans' strategy is to match up all-world tight end Jimmy Graham against wounded duck (no pun intended) safety Patrick Chung, but the nasty (wind chill in the teens; possible snow) weather will equalize that approach.

Ordinarily this would be a old-school last-team-to-score-wins shootout, but again, the weather will probably mitigate that to some extent. Still, there's a lot of talent on both teams here, so it should be interesting. The over-under on how many times the broadcasters mention that Nick Foles and Drew Brees attended the same high school is 13.

Prediction:  Eagles 37, Saints 27.

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San Diego (+7) at Cincinnati:  Sunday's AFC wild-card matchup is also a situation where the host traveled to the visitor's stadium during the regular season and defeated them. However, in their Week 13 17-10 victory in San Diego, the Bengals were more evenly matched with the Chargers than, say the Colts and Chefs were in Arrowhead. Both Cincinnati and San Diego had 19 first downs, and nearly identical times of possession.

But San Diego in December is not Cincinnati in January, and West Coast teams do not do well in snow, which is likely tomorrow in Cincy. Both teams tend to turn the ball over frequently, and QBs Andy Dalton and Philip Rivers are streaky and take risks. Chargers RB Ryan Mathews appears to have gotten past his earlier struggles with injury and ball security (giggity), but Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict, a first-round prospect who went undrafted because of personal issues (and the fact he attended Arizona State), is turning out to be the steal of the last few years, leading the team in tackles. Burfict will probably give Mathews nightmares as he tries to run uphill through the snow, both ways.

The Bengals' running game is not much better than the Chargers', but it's better enough to make a difference. Add in the snow, and it looks like a frustrating day for a San Diego team that punched respectably above its weight several times this season.

Prediction:  Bengals 20, Chargers 6.

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San Francisco (-2.5) at Green Bay:  Easily the toughest game this weekend to prognosticate. The weather, the rivalry, trying to guess which Colin Kaepernick will show up, or how close to 100% Aaron Rodgers really is. But all of that, in the end, is hype, and the fact is that this is simply strength against weakness -- the 49ers' potent running game against the Packers' horrifically weak run defense. SF has more healthy players on both sides of the ball, and can merely dink-and-dunk to Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, while punching Frank Gore up Green Bay's porous middle, made more vulnerable by LB Clay Matthews' season-ending thumb injury.

Rodgers has talented offensive weapons, to be sure, with powerful rookie RB Eddie Lacy figuring to be key to their ability to stay in the game. But the Niners' D are hungry ballers (again, giggity) who really just want to get back to Seattle to settle a contentious divisional rivalry. They don't have the weaknesses that Green Bay's defense does, and will concentrate on stuffing Lacy, forcing Rodgers to throw in what may be a record Arctic blast.

Somewhat perversely, said cold is the Packers' best hope; were it not for such conditions, this game would probably be a blowout.

Prediction:  49ers 16, Packers 13.

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[Update 1/5 6:00 PM PST:  Well, I suppose this is why they actually play the games, and why I watch them. I figured I'd go 3-1 or 2-2 for the weekend, but had assumed the whiffs would be on the Indy and Green Bay games, if anything. Philly and Cincy seemed like locks, but primarily because of the weather, which turned out to be a non-factor in both games.

So now the Colts will head to Bahhhston, and San Diego to Denver in the AFC, and New Orleans to Seattle and San Francisco to Carolina in the NFC. Needless to say, I'll be rooting for the underdogs in the AFC, but it's a bit tougher to do so in the NFC; I would actually prefer to see a Seattle-Carolina matchup for that conference. We'll see; stay tuned for divisional predictions this Friday or Saturday before kickoff.]