NFL Conference Championship Predictions

2-2 last week again. Count on 50% accuracy (at best) this time around as well; the fun is in guessing which half. Both games are on Sunday 1/21, times PST. [Note:  In the original post on Friday, I called the AFC game for the Fackin' Patsies, but after thinking about it for a day, decided the Jagwires could take this, and changed the pick on Saturday (1/20), well before game time.]

AFC Championship Game -- 12:15 PM
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-6) at New England Patriots (14-3)(-7.5):  Once again, I'll always root for whoever's going up against Belichick's Death Star, and not just because Belichick and Kraft are friends with Fuckface Von Clownstick (though that certainly doesn't help). But in this case, the Jaguars are one of those teams I tend to root for when the Raiders are sucking wind. So I'd definitely like to see the Jags pull this one off and make it to their first Super Bowl, and based on their performance last week in Pittsburgh (as opposed to their performance the weekend before at home against the Bills), they might have a decent shot.

The two keys to the Jaguars' success have been their outstanding pass defense (2nd in points and yards allowed), and QB Blake Bortles' improved efficiency under new OC Nathaniel Hackett. While his stats are not earth-shattering by any means (3,687 passing yards, 21 TD, 13 INT), his completion percentage (60.2) and interception percentage (2.5) are career bests. (Bortles will also be a free agent after this season, which means he's playing for a $100M contract, whether it's in Jacksonville or somewhere else. Expect a bidding war with Miami, Arizona, and the LA Chargers if Philip Rivers retires.) Rookie RB Leonard Fournette is already the best runner the team has had since Fred Taylor or Maurice Jones-Drew, putting up 1,040 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs in 13 games in the regular season, and tacking on another 109 yards and 3 TDs against a top-10 Steelers defense in the divisional playoff round.

Despite what for the Patsies would be considered something of a subpar season (two of their three regular-season losses were at home; four of their wins were by less than a touchdown), the fact is that the team does nothing but execute, and generally without a surplus of star players. Brady completed two-thirds of his pass attempts and had a 4:1 TD:INT ratio, using Gronk and a rotation of select castoffs. Free-agent speedster Brandin Cooks is the only real deep threat for Brady to work with. And yet, in their last three games (against the Bills, Jets, and last week's divisional win over the Titans), they've outscored their opponents by a total of 98-36.

As much as I like to hate on the Patsies, the fact is that they get it done with strategy and execution. And this might be where, believe it or not, Jacksonville can get the upper hand. Turns out that not only is Jacksonville (+10) ahead of New England (+6) in the all-important turnover ratio stat, but even the actual takeaway-giveaway numbers (33-23 Jags; 18-12 Pats) indicate how much more opportunistic the Jaguars' defense has been. It's also a function of how much the Patsies have settled in as a time-of-possession team later in the season.

So that's all there is to it for the Jacksonville Jaguars to get to the Super Bowl:  create turnovers, don't make offensive mistakes, and grind the clock. These are all things they've actually been pretty good at this season. They have one of the best pairs of cornerbacks in the league with Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. It actually isn't too difficult to envision a scenario where the Jaguars get ahead early like they did in Pittsburgh, and hold out just enough in the end to eke out a shootout win. The reality of it is more likely to be the Patsies being just one step ahead the whole game and heading to their umpteenth Super Bowl. I'm only half-kidding when I say they have the luck of the devil, and the refs on their side.

But the hell with it -- let's take the underdog.

Final Score:  Jaguars 41, Patsies 38.

NFC Championship Game -- 3:45 PM
Minnesota Vikings (14-3)(-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3):  I'm not going to claim to be a full-on NFL historian, nor would I even know how to go about searching for such a statistic, but this has to be the only or one of the very few times in playoff history where teams that were seeded 1-2 face off in the conference finals with backup quarterbacks starting for both teams. Both QBs (Case Keenum for the Vikings; Nick Foles for the Eagles) have been respectable, helped greatly by strong defenses and solid running games.

The Vikings head into Philly after a highlight-reel finish against the Saints, with New Orleans leading 24-23 and Keenum hitting WR Stefon Diggs on a desperation 4th-and-5 lob with :09 remaining, just hoping to get within field goal range, but Diggs hauling it in for a touchdown to end the game. However, it never should have gotten that close in the first place, with Minnesota running up a 17-0 halftime lead, and the Vikings' offense collapsing in the second half. One of the Saints' comeback TDs was thanks to a wildly errant throw from Keenum from his own red zone, a slow rainbow falling straight into the arms of Saints DB Marcus Williams. (Then again, it was Williams who missed an opportunity to tackle Diggs on the final play and secure the win.)

While Foles is a decent backup, the fact is that the Eagles have been struggling on offense the last few games. Put it this way:  in Week 16, while they were still trying to finalize their playoff seeding and secure home-filed advantage, Philly did everything they could to give the game to the hapless Raiders, who were simply too incompetent to take it. The Eagles' final regular-season game was a 6-0 laugher loss against the Cowboys, who also had nothing to play for. Even last week's 15-10 win over Atlanta had as much to do with the Falcons' shortcomings as the Eagles' strengths.

This will probably be a low-to-mid-scoring affair, and it wouldn't be surprising to see something along the lines of 7-3 at halftime, with maybe some late scores. But the Vikings are just better enough to where they should be playing in their first Super Bowl in forty years, and become the first team to play in the big game in their home stadium.

Final Score:  Vikings 20, Eagles 9.

[Update 2/4/18 12:30 PM PST:  I'm less annoyed about going 0-2 on the conference championship games, than at the prospect of yet another Patsies Super Bowl. But again, as much as I like to hate on Hoodie and Tommy, the fact is they strategize and execute better than other teams. The Jaguars had it in the bag, and let it slip away. It's as if the Patsies haven't done that shit a million times before. All you have to do is watch the film and plan accordingly. That's all they do.

Anyway, Philly's defense turns out to be pretty damned good, but they are impacted by injuries at this point, so Nick Foles will have to step up the offense. If Chris Long can get in there and harass Brady enough, the Iggles  have a fighting chance, but as recent history shows, even when you have a boot on their neck, the Patsies (with a little help from the refs) have a knack for coming back. Rooting for Philly, but realistically it's probably another notch in the belt for Fuckface Von Clownstick's favorite team.

Final Score:  Patsies 27, Eagles 24.]

NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

2-2 last week, the Titans' upset of the Chefs being a nice surprise. As always, wager responsibly.

Saturday 1/13 1:40 PM Atlanta Falcons (11-6) (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3):  This should be a good game between two pretty evenly matched teams. Both the Falcons and the Eagles feature solid, well-balanced offenses paired with aggressive, stingy defenses (both defenses finished top-10 in most major defensive categories). Though the Eagles were a better team with Carson Wentz starting at QB, Nick Foles is a solid veteran, and probably the best backup in the league. After watching them travel cross-country to dismantle the Rams' number-one offense, though, Atlanta seems to have momentum. Unless it's a full-on blizzard, I'd take the Falcons and the points.

Final Score:  Falcons 27, Eagles 17.

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5:15 PM Tennessee Titans (10-7) at New England Patriots (13-3) (-13.5):  Second only to watching Emperor Snowflake get frog-marched out of the White House to spend twenty more years in Leavenworth before dying poor, broke, and alone, nothing would give me more pleasure than to watch Little Tommy Tuck Rule and his Facking Patsies get their shit pushed in by any other team, every goddamned time. Unfortunately, they have the luck of the devil and the refs in their pocket. The Titans do have excellent offensive and defensive lines, and they did just knock out the Chefs in Peckerhead Arrowhead Stadium, but unless they can pressure Tuck Rule enough to make some mistakes early on, and then hold on for the inevitable fourth-quarter comeback, it's probably going to be ugly.

Final Score:  Patsies 34, Titans 20.

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Sunday 1/14 10:00 AM Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3) (-7):  I don't hate the Steelers quite as much as the Patsies, but this is another one where I have a clear favorite. But given their lackluster performance last week at home against the hapless Bills, the Jaguars probably don't have much of a prayer in Pittsburgh, although the Steelers turned the ball over five times in a 30-9 loss in Pittsburgh on October 8th. All-world WR Antonio Brown is recuperating from a partially torn calf muscle and an illness, so if Jacksonville is going to have any chance in this, it's going to be with their top-rated pass defense shutting Brown and the other Steelers receivers down.

Final Score:  Steelers 31, Jaguars 13.

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1:40 PM New Orleans Saints (12-5) at Minnesota Vikings (13-3) (-5):  The Vikings have done more with less than any team in the NFL this year, and it has paid off well for them. After season-ending injuries to top RB pick Dalvin Cook, and QBs Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater, journeyman QB Case Keenum stepped into the proverbial "game manager" role and led Minnesota to a 13-3 record. Keenum's 3,547 passing yards and 22-7 TD-INT ratio are career highs for him, but the Vikes' real strength is their defense, which was #1 in the league for points allowed (15.8 ppg). The Saints are much improved from last year, especially on defense, and rookie back Alvin Kamara is an exciting, dynamic player who should win Offensive Rookie of the Year. These teams met in Week 1 in Minnesota, and the Vikings won 29-19. The outcome this time will probably be much the same, though the Saints might beat the spread.

Final Score:  Vikings 24, Saints 20.

NFL Wild Card Predictions

It's been a strange year for pro football, in some part due to Clownigula stoking his freak-show base. More than that, though, there are elements in the game itself, as well as its participants, that are starting to accumulate on the consciences of fans:  the violence and criminality of some of the star players; the CTE and other physical tolls taken on the players; the season-ending injuries to new stars such as DeShaun Watson and Carson Wentz; the crummy ref calls that always seem to favor the Patsies; the idiotic cracking down on touchdown celebrations; and yes, the stupid polarization of the fans over an issue that affects no one.

And the fucking commercials -- Jesus Hamster Christ, you can only watch so many goddamned insurance and fast food and truck commercials in a fucking lifetime, crammed ass-over-teakettle into a three-hour window, over and over and over again till you're ready to eat a Desert Eagle. It's just not worth it anymore, to an increasing degree.

Some of it is just market saturation and corporate overkill, but in general, the league and the sport itself seem to be on the cusp of a long decline. Will Leitch covered a lot of this in a terrific article around Thanksgiving, but the broad stroke is that we're watching young men damage themselves irreparably, and whether enough fans feel guilty enough about that to watch less or not at all, the bottom line is that far fewer kids are playing youth football already. Wait and see how that dilutes the overall talent level by the time they're of age to play pro sports, if they haven't turned it into flag football before then.

All that said, this past week has had some potentially interesting and cool news for the NFL. The Patsies might lose Belichick to the Giants over the Jimmy Garoppolo trade. Jon Gruden is finally coming back to the Raiders for a 10-year/$100M contract, and maybe a piece of the team. I genuinely look forward to the Patsies being terrible and the Raiders finally winning a Super Bowl. But I also realize that there won't be many more seasons where football will still be fun to watch. The returns seem to be diminishing at a faster rate.

But for the time being, the pigskin prognostications are still fun to do, so let's kick off the next few weekends of random guesses (all times PST):

(10/6) (1:30 PM) Tennessee at Kansas City (-8.5):  Neither of these teams will go very far in the playoffs, so it's hard to invest too much time in stat-mining. The basic premise is that the Chefs are tough at home and DeMarco Murray is injured. Both QBs have been playing reasonably well this season, nothing special, and Kansas City's secondary is banged up, so Marcus Mariota should be able to pile up some passing yards. The Titans should beat the spread, but that's about it.

Final Score:  Chiefs 27, Titans 21.

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(5:15 PM) Atlanta at Los Angeles Rams (-6):  The return of football to LA strikes me as a positive, for some reason. Sure, the Rams' and Chargers' owners are bastards, but they're all bastards. It's in the league charter as a condition of membership. Maybe the only owner who's not a total shit is Oakland's Mark Davis, who dresses like an eight-year-old and is moving the team to Vegas.

At any rate, the Rams have experienced a nice turnaround this year, and are fun to watch. Jared Goff appears comfortable with the offense now, and Todd Gurley racked up 2,093 total yards from scrimmage and 19 TDs, so it's understandable that Rams fans are having visions of Marshall Faulk. The drastic improvement in Goff and Gurley can at least in part be attributed to the free-agency signing of left tackle Andrew Whitworth, a Pro Bowl mauler from the Bengals whose absence was certainly noticed in Cincinnati.

After blowing a 28-3 lead in the second half of the Super Bowl, the Falcons shook off the hangover and managed to finish 10-6, which was still only good enough for third in the punishing NFC South division. QB Matt Ryan is having a bit of an off year (for him), but is still one of the top passers in the league, and the running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are solid if unspectacular, combining for 2,109 total yards and 16 TDs. It's not going to be enough to get past the Rams' pounding defense.

Final Score:  Rams 37, Falcons 24.

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(10/7) (10:00 AM) Buffalo at Jacksonville (-8.5):  The resurgent Jaguars, like the Rams and Eagles in the NFC, are shaking up the usual collection of teams that make the postseason. For that matter, so are the Bills, a one-time perennial playoff team that is making the first postseason appearance in 17 years. But where the Bills essentially backed into their playoff spot, Jacksonville actually looks improved, with oft-maligned QB Blake Bortles connecting with his receivers much more consistently and seeming to find a rhythm.

The Jaguars beat up on Baltimore and Pittsburgh early in the season, but dropped their final two games against the 49ers and Titans, resting some of their starters for the playoffs. (The Rams did the same thing in their season finale against the Niners.) Sometimes that works well, but with young teams needing consistency and momentum, sometimes it throws them off. However, Jacksonville went 6-2 at home and has the league's best pass defense, while Buffalo has struggled all year offensively, so this should go the Jaguars' way.

Final Score:  Jaguars 31, Buffalo 13.

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(1:40 PM) Carolina at New Orleans (-7):  Both of these teams finished atop the NFC South with 11-5 records, but since New Orleans won both regular-season matchups, they claim the division crown and hence home field advantage for this game. After starting the season with back-to-back losses against the Vikings and Patriots, the Saints rediscovered their offense and went on a tear. Rookie sensation Alvin Kamara forms a potent rushing tandem with Mark Ingram; each back accounted for over 1,500 total yards and a dozen touchdowns. QB Drew Brees was his usual efficient self, posting 4,334 passing yards, and a respectable 23-8 TD-INT ration.

The Panthers, for their part, have gotten it done with a less-powerful offense, with most of their victories being within a touchdown. Their performance last week in Atlanta, with a critical playoff seeding on the line, does not bode well for them -- QB Cam Newton was held to 180 passing yards and threw 3 interceptions in a 22-10 loss. As mentioned, the Saints already beat the Panthers twice, by a total of 31 points, and there's not really an indication that that's going to change.

Final Score:  Saints 31, Panthers 20.

Litmus Test

Folks are always taking those dopey Which Dukes of Hazzard Character Are You? quizzes on the Facebook and such. I have here for you a much simpler, quicker, and infinitely more accurate psych battery for you:

1. If you are angry about NFL players taking a quiet knee during the national anthem before the game, than you were about nazis in Charlottesville waving the flags of extinguished enemy nations, you are:
   A. an idiot
   B. an asshole
   C. a charter member of Cult 45
   D. all of the above
2. If you insist that protesting during the anthem is the same as protesting against the anthem, and therefore "disrespectful,", but you were unconcerned about a presidential candidate taunting a tortured combat veteran and heckling a Gold Star family whose son was killed in combat, you are:
   A. a moron
   B. a liar
   C. unclear on what the First Amendment actually means
   D. all of the above

Pretty simple, right? If there's one thing that's depressingly consistent about the rube contingent that infests and propagates and keeps this nation down in perpetuity, it that these shameless assholes fetishize the symbols of democracy to a creepy extent, while simultaneously expressing utter hostility to the most important principle of democracy, that of free speech.

They seem unclear on what the First Amendment actually means, and what it entails. It is meaningless if it doesn't protect unpopular speech. It is useless if it does not allow nazis to march peacefully in a college town, or athletes to express their concerns in one of the few ways a black man in a culturally prominent role can get the attention of white people.

I don't want to hear anymore bullshit about "disrespect" from someone who talked shit about whether John McCain is a war hero or not. I've said it before, but let's do it once more:  I've taken more than my share of pot-shots at Poor Ol' Straight Talk, especially when he summoned the Arctic Harpy as his running mate in '08 (probably by saying her name aloud five times in front of a bathroom mirror). But it was always about things he said or did in a political context.

The Vietnam War, the farther we get away from it, looms more and more as a moral catastrophe in the US' history, which is saying something. There's not much debate these days from any political position that it was strategically and morally indefensible in retrospect. And one might say something about the morality of dropping death from far above, frequently on defenseless rural villages.

But here's the deal:  when McCain was shot down in his bomber, both arms and a leg were fractured. When the Vietnamese pulled McCain from his downed plane, they crushed his shoulder with a rifle butt and bayoneted him. He was tortured for months before the Vietnamese decided to make a propaganda effort to release him, since McCain's father was the supreme Navy commander for the Pacific region. McCain refused to be released before officers that had been held longer; the enraged Vietnamese immediately re-broke both his arms, knocked out all his teeth, and tortured him mercilessly for months after. (David Foster Wallace describes all this and more in his famous essay Up, Simba, or you can read the rundown here.)

McCain certainly has plenty of faults -- he was a cocky, swaggering asshole who routinely endangered other pilots and shipmates, and after his release from the Hanoi Hilton, he treated his first wife horribly. And again, the war itself is and was morally irredeemable. However, none of those things detracts from the simple fact that McCain endured horrendous treatment that would break most of us, and much of that came after he conducted himself honorably by refusing early release from a literal torture chamber.

All of that occurred while Bone Spurs McHairpiece was going through his own "personal Vietnam" by supposedly fucking everything that moved within reach of him. For all of his flaws, John McCain has more honor and courage in the sweat on his droopy old-man balls, than Fuckface von Clownstick ever had in his entire miserable body.

So anyone who's taking that "disrespect" tack about professional athletes expressing their opinion about something that affects many of them on a very personal level, they can shove it up their ass, take it up with their disgrace of a "leader," a crazy old man who's still butt-hurt that the NFL refused to let him buy the Buffalo Bills, because he's a greasy shyster who never pays his fucking bills and screws over everyone who's dumb enough to do business with.

Bum's Rush

When I speak intemperately of the toxic orange slug festering in the people's house -- and frankly, that is the only proper way to mention Emperor Snowflake -- there are myriad reasons for that tone, every single one of them provided by Himself.

This is fucking unacceptable, every bit of it, and it's been a pleasure and a joy this fine weekend to watch athletes of all races and multiple sports unite against it. There's a reason Colin Kaepernick's jersey was the biggest seller last year, after he began taking his weekly stand (so to speak). It's the same reason NFL players are linking arms today, why the Pittsburgh Steelers refused as a team (except for offensive lineman Alejandro Villanueva, who is an Army veteran) to even step foot on the field for the anthem.

Obviously, sports occupy a very peculiar place in the national psyche, and of course it's even more absurdly pronounced in many other nations, where soccer riots and such are not uncommon. The movement of a ball can do some hinky shit to the brains of otherwise fairly normal people. So of course there are those who are deeply butt-hurt over all this mishegoss. They are very wound up about the "disrespect shown to our military," but you can bet your next paycheck they have fuck-all to say about someone who taunted a tortured military veteran, who talked shit about a Gold Star family who lost their son in combat, who propagated a FUCKING BIRTHER LIE for FIVE FUCKING YEARS.

Respect, it seems, is only important to these folks when it involves people and things they care about. I know, I know, try to contain your shock at this amazing revelation.

The bigger picture is that the walls are closing in, and Old Man Clownstick is rage-tweeting while he's filling his old-man diapers, because Mueller's got his fucking number, because now it turns out that his own team has been using private email accounts (LOCK THEM UP! LOCK THEM UP!), because his approval rating scraped forty percent last week after he managed not to completely fuck up the hurricane responses in Texas and Florida. (Puerto Rico, on the other hand....), because the jig is about to be up, and he desperately needs a distraction.

Jesus H. Christ, this doddering dotard was so discombobulated the other night with his half-witted endorsement of oversized tool Luther Strange, he actually acknowledged that he might have made a mistake in endorsing Strange, and that maybe he should endorse ultra-whackjob Roy Moore. (By the way:  fuck you, Alabama, for foisting that piece of shit on the rest of the country.)

Most of all, even the cultiest of supporters have to acknowledge, if only to themselves, that if the world is a flaming hellscape -- if we are under mortal threat from North Korea and Iran, if ISIS is still imping along, if we are stuck in a failed war in Afghanistan and a despicable genocide in Yemen, then how does this fucking asshole have the time to worry about professional athletes exercising their First Amendment rights?

There needs to be a reckoning:  for the piece of shit defiling the nation's highest office on a daily basis; for the idiots and cranks who put him there; for the party that continues to enable this monster because they value billionaire tax cuts over everything; for the transnational merchant princes who bought enough politicians from both parties to create the conditions that made it possible for the P.O.S. to slither into office in the first place.

More and more people are recognizing these increasingly authoritarian conditions for what they are, and for what King Asshole wants them to be. Athletes using their positions to express resistance to this is a great thing, and hopefully the start of something greater. Let there be no confusion -- this is a warped, demented old man, a divisive, hateful, incompetent scumbag who needs to be stopped. Now.

Credit Where Due

It's been kind of a cottage industry in these here virtual pages over the years to talk shit about the New England Patriots and the douchebag fair-weather townies that pose as fans. And Brady, Belichick, and Bob Kraft are still and always welcome to kiss every square inch of my pasty Irish ass, just on general principle.

However, it should be duly noted that no fewer than six of Brady's teammates have already pre-emptively refused to visit the White House to celebrate their Super Bowl victory. So good on all of them, and hopefully more follow suit. And anyone who starts up the usual bullshit about "respecting the office" can go fuck themselves. Clownstick himself doesn't respect the office, and professional athletes vote and pay taxes just like the rest of us, and the same right to register their opinion that we all have.

Super Bowl 51 Prediction

Atlanta Falcons (13-5) vs. New England Patriots (16-2)
Spread:  NE +3 (o/u 59.0)

This is sizing up to be a classic strength vs. strength game, pitting Atlanta's high flying video-game offense against New England's opportunistic defense, which led the league in scoring this season. However, as the Football Outsiders stat gurus point out, the Patsies' D faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses this year, certainly nothing at the level of what Matt Ryan and Julio Jones have done to most of their opponents all season (and they have only gained momentum in their post-season games).

But as the FO guys point out, the Falcons' defense faced mostly middling offenses throughout the season as well, and put up worse numbers throughout the season. Their improvement over the last six games still leaves them behind what New England defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is doing with his squad, which is solid but has no true superstars (for example, the season sack leader is DE Trey Flowers, with just 7.0 sacks).

Nor does Tom Brady have any real weapons on offense beyond WR Julian Edelman, who leads the team by far with 1106 receiving yards and just 3 TDs, and RB LaGarrette Blount, who powered 299 carries for 1161 yards and 18 TDs. We can (and do!) hate on Tommy Tuck Rule whenever possible, but the fact is that he and Belichick do more with less, year after year. With no true number-one wideout since Randy Moss, and all-world TE Rob Gronkowski out injured (imploded vas deferens) most of the season, and being suspended the first four games, the Patsies still coasted to a 14-2 regular season record with relatively little trouble or drama.

Fuck them and their spoiled masshole fans, though, and for reasons political as well as sports-related. Brady, Belichick, and team owner Bob Kraft are all shameless butt-lickers for Clownstick, and they can all go die on a fucking island together. And not a nice resort island either, more like some deserted atomic-tested atoll out in the remote western Pacific, where they can draw lots to see who gets eaten first. Our money's on the fat old bastards Clownstick and Kraft getting spit-roasted first, pitting the ageless Brady against the wily Belichick for the final Island Long Pig Showdown.

But uh, in the meantime, Sunday's game should be a good one, and fairly close, even though the last time you had a killer offense versus a killer defense, it was the biggest SB blowout evar, literally from the first play of the game. That game featured a record-setting, knockout D rightly nicknamed the "Legion of Boom," and the architect of that defense was one Dan Quinn, currently the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. I'm gonna call it right now that Atlanta's defense steps up and gets a few plays on Brady, and gives Ryan and Jones just enough breathing room to bring the Falcons franchise their first Super Bowl victory.

Predicted Score:  Atlanta 37, New England 34.

[Update 2/5/17 7:40 PST:  Well, hell, after making America great again in the first three quarters by rolling to a 28-3 lead, Atlanta shit the bed yuuugely, allowing the fackin' Patsies to tie it up with just eighteen seconds left in regulation, and marching right down the field in the first overtime drive in Super Bowl history, for a 34-28 victory for Team Clownstick. No, I am not consoled by the fact that I guessed New England's exact point total.

Maybe the Falcons should have campaigned in Wisconsin. I keed, I keed.

Even more fun:  apparently Clownstick left his own Super Bowl party before the Patsies mounted their comeback. Sad! Also, too, does Melania have permanent Resting Hostage Face at this point, or what?]

NFL Championship Game Predictions

NFC Championship Game
Green Bay Packers (12-6) at Atlanta Falcons (12-5) (3:05 PM EST)
Spread: ATL -5.5

In the wild card and division rounds, my semi-educated guesses prognostications were 3-1 each time, getting pretty close on most of the final scores as well. On both weekends, it was the upstart Packers who thwarted my guesswork. This is where that all ends.

Green Bay lost in Atlanta in a 33-32 squeaker, way back in Week 8 (10/30). But injuries have taken their toll since then, mostly on Green Bay. The Packers have no running game to speak of (20th in average rushing yards per game), and their defensive backfield is in tatters (31st in passing yards allowed). They barely hung on to beat the Cowboys despite building a 21-3 lead early on, and leading 28-13 in the fourth quarter. Rodgers has done a hell of a job getting the team this far, but he's battling the flu (spread was 3.5 at the beginning of the week), and can't do everything by himself. The Falcons are going to close out the Georgia Dome with their first trip to the Super Bowl in nearly twenty years.

Predicted Score: Falcons 41, Packers 24.

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AFC Championship Game
Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) at New England Patriots (15-2) (6:40 PM EST)
Spread: NE -6

I don't care for either of these teams, so let's just start this by saying that I hope the Patsies lose by five touchdowns, and then the Steelers get blown out in the Super Bowl by whichever NFC team makes it. But assessing the likely outcome of this game is a much different matter.

The Steelers looked inept and inefficient in derping their way to six field goals and no touchdowns, beating the Chiefs 18-16 at Arrowhead. But the flip side of that is that Chefs' DC Bob Sutton is an underrated strategist whose schemes and personnel led the league in generating turnovers, and did a hell of a job on their red-zone defense, keeping the so-called Killer Bees (Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell, and Antonio Brown) out of the end zone.

New England visited Pittsburgh in Week 7 (10/23) and came out with a 27-16 victory, but Roethlisberger was recuperating from knee surgery and did not play in that game.

Throughout the regular season, New England's o-line did a decent job of keeping Brady upright, but in the first half of last week's divisional round game against Houston, the Texans' pass rush exposed some holes, knocked down Brady eight times and forced him to throw two interceptions (he had thrown only 2 INT all season). The Steelers have one of the most disruptive linebacking crews with James Harrison, Ryan Shazier, and Bud Dupree, all of them fast, vicious hitters who will keep Brady on his heels throughout. But the FACKIN' PATSIES always seem to find a way.

Predicted Score: Patriots 37, Steelers 27.

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Some good matchups this weekend. All times EST

Saturday's Games (1/14/17)
Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) at Atlanta Falcons (11-5) (4:35 PM)
Spread:  ATL -6.5

The Seahawks won the regular-season matchup 26-24 on October 16th. But that was in Seattle, and this game is one of the last to take place in the soon-to-be-defunct Georgia Dome (because no municipality can resist the temptation of gulling taxpayers to destroy an "ancient" but serviceable structure, and spend a billion or so on a monument with all the current bells and whistles). Ahem.

The Falcons won five of their last six games (four of those by at least 17 points), and earned a rest last week with their #2 playoff seed. They are top five in the major offensive categories, including their league-leading average of 33.8 points per game. This has helped them make up for their lousy defense, which is in the bottom quartile in points allowed (27th), total yards allowed (25th), and passing yards allowed (28th).

Seattle should be able to exploit that defense to some degree, with all-pro TE Jimmy Graham healthy at the right time, but the Seahawks' offense is way too banged up everywhere else to maintain effectiveness. Their rushing attack has rotated through injuries all year, and their offensive line is shot (which is why RB Marshawn Lynch chose to retire rather than return to the team).

Falcons WR Julio Jones is having a career season, and he and Seahawks star CB Richard Sherman seem to genuinely hate each other. Jones and Sherman should be the key matchup here, and don't be surprised if they eventually scrap and one or both of them get tossed.

Predicted Score:  Falcons 38, Seahawks 21.

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Houston Texans (10-7) at New England Patriots (14-2) (8:15 PM)
Spread:  NE -16.0

I hate to say it, but short of the Texans' league-leading defense (1st in total yards allowed, 2nd in passing yards) snapping Tommy Tuck Rule in the first quarter, this is probably going to be a blowout. Despite losing Brady for the first four games of the season, the Patsies have been their usual selves -- systematic, grimly efficient, compiling the league's best record and the easy odds-on favorite to bring home the Lombardi Trophy for the fifth time in Brady's career.

That New England manages their high level of play with no real superstars besides Brady makes it all the more impressive/annoying. All-world TE Rob Gronkowski has been injured more often than not, and was placed on injured reserve on Dec. 4. Despite that, the Patsies are top five in points, total yards, and passing yards, and their defense is top ten in most categories. With third-string QB Jacoby Brissett subbing for Brady back in Week 3, New England hammered Houston 27-0.

The Texans seem to know that they over-achieved this year, essentially overpaying for QB Brock Osweiler and backing into the top slot in one of the worst divisions in the league, capping that string with a wild-card game against a Raiders team that was worthless without QB Derek Carr. Houston's luck is going to run out today, and they probably won't even beat the spread.

Predicted Score:  Patriots 35, Texans 9.

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Sunday's Games (1/15/17)
Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Dallas Cowboys (13-3)(4:40 PM)
Spread: Dallas -5

The Packers overcame a 5-5 start to run the table to win their division and get a wild-card home game against a Giants team whose receivers should have spent more time preparing for the game, and less time on their party yacht in Miami. The Cowboys, behind rookies QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, have dropped only three games -- two to the aforementioned Giants (by a total of four points) and a meaningless season-ender that allowed Dallas to rest their stars.

One of Dallas' victories was at Green Bay, a 30-16 smackdown on October 16th. But the Packers seem to have found their mojo at the opportune time, and QB Aaron Rodgers, even without injured #1 wideout Jordy Nelson, is an experienced playoff winner. Both teams' defenses are miserable against the pass (Green Bay is 31st in yards allowed, Dallas is 26th), but the Cowboys are first against the rush and fifth in points allowed. If the Cowboys can contain Rodgers' scrambling and improve skills, they have a pretty good shot at moving to the conference championship round.

Predicted Score: Cowboys 34, Packers 30.

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Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) (8:20 PM)
Spread:  KC -1.0

This was originally scheduled as the early Sunday game, but game time has been moved back for this one, due to the ice storms in the Midwest. The Steelers blew up the Chefs 43-14 back on October 2nd in Pittsburgh, but Kansas City is strong at home, and their offense has found a groove with the development of TE Travis Kelce (who inexplicably has his own Bachelor-type reality show, because if there's one thing most NFL players have difficulty with, it's getting pussy) and the explosive play of rookie WR/PR/scatback Tyreek Hill, who has been shredding defenses and special teams throughout the season.

The Steelers have excellent playmakers of their own, with RB LeVeon Bell and WR Antonio Brown having outstanding seasons. Kansas City all-star DBs Marcus Peters and Eric Berry will have their hands full trying to cover Brown, and QB Ben Roethlisberger seems to be coming back from injuries slowly but surely.

Both teams have solid, upper-quartile offenses and defenses, so what this may come down to is playoff experience and quarterback play. Alex Smith has thrived under coach Andy Reid, but Roethlisberger already has two Super Bowl victories under his belt, and is fearless at launching the deep ball to Brown, who runs routes as rapidly and well as any receiver in the league. This should be a close, well-played game between two evenly-matched opponents.

Predicted Score:  Steelers 21, Chiefs 17.

NFL Wild Card Predictions

Let's take a welcome break from the whirlwind of corruption and doom waiting on the horizon in a few short weeks, and return to our time-honored tradition of making semi-educated guesses on the outcomes of NFL playoff games. Wager responsibly. All times EST.

Saturday's Games (1/7/17)
Oakland Raiders (12-4) at Houston Texans (9-7) (4:35 PM)
Spread:  HOU -3.5

Oy. While my hard-luck Raiders have finally put together a nice winning season, you can see by the header -- having to visit a team that won three fewer games -- that something went tits up for Oakland. In their penultimate game against the worthless Indianapolis Colts on Christmas Day (naturally), QB Derek Carr caught his foot in the shitty Oakland turf as he was being sacked, thus turning and breaking Carr's fibula, and essentially ending the Raiders' playoff hopes right there.

They went on to win that game, and had already secured a playoff berth anyway, but needed to win their final game last week in Denver to get a #2 playoff seed and home-field advantage. Not only did they not win, they barely showed up in Denver, failing across the board on offense, defense, and special teams. The loss put Oakland in a 12-4 tie with the Kansas City Chiefs, who won both regular-season matches against the Raiders, and therefore the tiebreaker, dropping Oakland to a #5 wild-card playoff slot.

While it's true that the Raiders have put together their best season since their 2002 Super Bowl season, and have won (by a couple) more games this season than in the last two seasons combined, that final Denver game nonetheless exposed this team badly. Nine of their twelve victories were by eight points or less; three of those by field goals and two by one point. Most of those close games involved some degree of derping around the first half, and heroically climbing out of the hole in the fourth quarter, which makes for exciting football, but was utterly dependent on a quarterback playing at an elite level to bail them out. With backup Matt McGloin getting injured in the Colts game as well (along with him not being very good in the first place), the Raiders are forced to start Connor Cook, the Michigan State QB who Oakland picked in the fourth-round last May.

The Texans have their own problems at quarterback, wildly overpaying in the off-season for Denver backup Brock Osweiler, who stands 6'8" and set passing records at Arizona State, but so far has not been able to click in a pro offense. Houston head coach Bill O'Brien, formerly the OC and QB coach at New England, prides himself on being a QB whisperer of sorts, but maybe working with a once-in-a-generation QB like Tom Brady will fuck with your head that way. At any rate, the Texans gave up on Osweiler a few games back and went with third-year backup Tom Savage, who was just good enough to squeak the Texans past Jacksonville and Cincinnati before sustaining a concussion in the final game at Tennessee.

So the Raiders are throwing a stone rookie into the playoff flames, and the Texans are forced to go with an experienced vet who has poor field vision and footwork, which means there's going to be a lot of running. The Raiders can win this, if their defense gets their shit together and starts strong and makes plays, but that has only happened in one game this season, their November 6th home stand against Denver. In the four main defensive statistical categories (points, total yards, passing yards, rushing yards), the Raiders finish no higher than 20th, while the Texans finish no lower than 12th, and are in fact first and second in total and passing yards allowed. Raiders DE Khalil Mack is a beast, and a legit contender for Defensive Player of the Year, but the defensive backfield is a fucking mess. They need to snap up at least the cornerbacks and/or safeties in the offseason, whether in the draft or free agency. It's all going to come down to which defense makes mistakes and gives up big plays, and if last week's shitshow in Denver was any indication, they have absolutely no discipline or focus.

In other words, the Raiders are probably fucked, though it wouldn't be shocking if they played just hard enough to beat the spread. Some prognosticators have mentioned that Oakland beat Houston "at home" in the regular season, without mentioning that that game was actually played in Mexico City, but was for statistical purposes considered a "home" game for the Raiders. The only saving graces here are that Carr will be fine and fully rehabbed well before training camp, and for the first time since the first Fredo Arbusto administration, they have enough pieces in place to be contenders for next season.

Final Score:  Texans 24, Raiders 17.

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Detroit Lions (9-7) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1) (8:15 PM)
Spread:  SEA -8.0

Somehow, in the few years since Seattle's Legion of Boom defense crushed Peyton Manning's record-setting offensive output in Super Bowl 48, the Seahawks have shed the image of endearing, hungry underdogs, and become more like the mid-'80s 49ers -- arrogant, insufferable, bandwagoneering dickheads who don't seem to appreciate that part of their success is due to the fact that they're the only competent team in their division. And it's doubly true of their fans, who probably wouldn't have been caught dead anywhere near a Seahags game before 2004, if that.

On the other hand, the Lions' lovable loser image only got burnished, if anything, by the premature retirement of all-world wide receiver Calvin Johnson after last season. It takes a special level of mismanagement skull-fuckery to make not one (Barry Sanders) but two (Calvin Johnson) once-in-a-generation players, arguably the best at their respective positions during their careers, retire at the age of thirty, in their prime. Detroit was staring a 4-12 season in the face, and in fact did start this season 1-3. But they then peeled off six close wins over their next seven games, and got into contention.

Like their AFC counterparts in Oakland, it is the closeness of all those wins that will probably be the Lions' undoing -- only one of their nine wins was by more than a touchdown, and they dropped their last three games after QB Matthew Stafford hurt the middle finger on his throwing hand. More bad news for Detroit:  while their defense occupies the middle third of the league, the offense is struggling and over-compensating. Stafford has stepped up and had a decent season without his go-to WR, and the Lions are 11th in offensive passing yards. But they are 30th in rushing yards, which means Seattle will just set LB Bobby Wagner in blitz sets to force Stafford to throw early, into the arms of their still-powerful defensive backfield.

Seattle seems to be getting hot at the right time, they feel disrespected because no one gives a fuck about them beating up on the hapless Rams and Niners, and are bound to take it out on an overachieving Lions team. It's too bad, because I literally know Chicago Bears fans who would love to see the division rival Lions take a huge chunk out of Seattle. I don't see any way that happens, though.

Final Score:  Seahawks 34, Lions 10.

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Sunday's Games (1/8/17)
Miami Dolphins (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) (1:05 PM)
Spread:  PIT -10.0

Miami is another one of those teams that's had one of those back-handed "lucky break" stories -- despite losing starting QB Ryan Tannehill a few weeks ago, rookie head coach Adam Gase has led the Dolphins into one of the few playoff berths they've had in recent years. Second-year RB Jay Ajayi has notched three 200-yard rushing games this season, including one against the Steelers, in a 30-15 victory for the Dolphins in Miami back in October.

But that was then and this is now. Experienced playoff teams understand the value of the long game, and of getting hot at the right time, and Pittsburgh is a textbook example of that principle. After dropping four straight in October and November, the Steelers won their last seven straight to capture the AFC North division and the #3 seed. Running back LeVeon Bell's 1,268 rushing yards place him right behind Ajayi's 1,272 yards, at #5 and #4 in the league respectively (Dallas RB Ezekiel Elliott led the league by more than 300 yards, finishing the season with 1,631 yards).

Miami backup QB Matt Moore is competent enough, and Ajayi is a potent weapon. But the 'Fins D sucks balls (29th in total yards, 30th in rush yards) and they're heading into Pittsburgh in January, where the forecast is 18 degrees. They're just lucky snow isn't in the forecast. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is banged up, but is as durable anyone in the league, and has already won the big one twice. This one may get away from the Dolphins.

Final Score:  Steelers 28, Dolphins 13.

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New York Giants (11-5) at Green Bay Packers (10-6) (4:40 PM)
Spread:  GB -4.5

If there's going to be an upset this weekend this is most likely to be the one. The Giants are low-seeded only because the Dallas Cowboys -- who lost both regular season games to the Giants -- had a better record. The Giants' MO in recent years has been to fart around the first half of the season, go maybe 3-5 or even 2-6, and then suddenly get their shit together and make it work to squeak into the playoffs.

In this matchup, that honor belongs to the Packers, who started 4-4, then got slapped down 47-25 and 42-24 by Tennessee and Washington (neither of whom made the playoffs) respectively, then closed out their final six games with victories as the (division rivals) Vikings and Lions started waning. Several of those wins actually were in dominating fashion, especially the 38-10 beatdown of the Seahawks on December 11. However, in most of those wins, the opponent had the dominant rusher and/or passer, indicating a fundamental weakness that they don't seem to have addressed.

It's just a hunch, but somehow I get the feeling that no matter what things look like on paper, Green Bay will find a way to fuck it up.

Final Score:  Giants 35, Packers, 31.

Got Woke

Jim Wright has far and away (afaik) the best and most complete take on (cue cheesy Ludlum title generator) The Kaepernick Kerfuffle. Kaepernick's rabid Facebook detractors proclaim that the song and flag worship that introduces professional sporting events is all about Respect. Well, clearly Kaepernick -- and now professional soccer player Megan Rapinoe -- feel that respect is a two-way street, that is something that must be earned, and not given mindlessly. And sometimes individuals might feel that they're not given the same respect that is demanded of them by their country.

The idea that the flag or the anthem stand for freedom and liberty is a nice one, but one that falls on its face when it's only for approved freedoms and liberties. The right to dissent or protest is even more important than the right to simply go along with the rest of the stadium. Anyone can do that; it take guts to decide not to do the (ahem) politically correct thing.

Now, to play devil's advocate, one should also note that if Kaepernick is trying to start a "conversation" or a "dialogue," there were and are any number of better ways to go about that. He is, after all, an NFL quarterback who came within thirty seconds and a dropped pass from winning a Super Bowl just a few years ago. Any number of reputable Bay Area journalists would have been happy to sit down and interview him, if he wanted to start a discussion on race. Performing provocative stunts like wearing socks with pigs wearing police caps, or pointedly sitting down through the national anthem, tend to (you'll be surprised to find) provoke something other than reasoned discourse.

Wrong Question

Here we go again; get ready for yet another meaningless kerfuffle over an athlete expressing their opinion. Humble prediction:  not one (1) media entity will think to ask, Why do we feel the need to perform nationalistic chants at sporting events? What tangible need is served by this? Some people would probably miss it, but so what? Can we just watch a fucking ballgame without being pestered by your jingoistic nonsense?

None of those questions will ever be asked or answered by a corporate media entity. There would be too much incoherent whining and twittering.

Ugly Americans

Soon as the story first broke that Ryan Lochte and his swim teammates had been robbed at gunpoint in Rio, you knew something had to be up. After all, Lochte was able to cultivate a career as an affable doofus because he really is, by all objective accounts, an affable doofus. So it makes sense that he would almost cause an international incident by lying about a little post-party vandalism.

None of this obviates the fact that Rio is, again by all objective accounts, an overpopulated, crime-ridden dump where the wealthy live behind security systems and high gates, and the poor live clustered on hillsides in corrugated tin sheds. Lochte's story was believed precisely because it was so believable.

Between the 2014 World Cup and now the 2016 Summer Olympics, Brazil has made an attempt to draw "prestige" events that show it as a player on the world stage, rather than a over-large banana republic. Problem is, in dealing with FIFA and the (notorious) IOC, two of the most corrupt and useless "world" organizations outside of the UN, Brazil has merely managed to cement that reputation of those organizations and or itself as a country.

Lochte's indignation at being shaken down in the street for a fine by Brazilian street cops just shows what a dope he is. If he had pulled this shit in, say, New York City, and the cops didn't recognize him, he'd have spent at least a few hours in a holding cell in Rikers, one of the more terrifying places in this country. Lochte (and his presumably virgin asshole) should be thanking those cops for sparing him from a Rio holding cell.

Not that any of it matters; while the gossip rags and moral wags are scolding him for his bad behavior and poor international diplomacy, Lochte has gone back to his regular life -- swimming for a living, cashing fat checks, and banging hot chicks. What a country! We should all be so lucky.

Super Bowl 50 Prediction

The NFL season comes to an end with a classic matchup -- an up-and-coming powerhouse led by one of the league's most charismatic stars, against a perennial contender trying for one last shot at glory for its retiring superstar (and most critical offensive player). Here's a quick breakdown of the two teams:

Carolina Panthers:  Like it or not (and somehow there are fans who don't), it's Cam Newton's league right now, everyone else is just playing in it. There are two players in the league right now who seem like they're having a blast every minute they're on the field; one is Newton and the other is Rob Gronkowski. Newton's attitude is contagious to his entire team, and they have rallied around his leadership, they love their fans, and they have beaten the hell out of opponents, rolling to a 17-1 record so far.

Like Tom Brady, one of the most impressive things about Newton is how well he's done with, to be frank, a less-than-ideal crew of receivers in his spread-option offense. Not that they're awful, but there's just no Calvin Johnson-type stud, no thousand-yard WR in the crew. Still, veterans Ted Ginn and Jerricho Cotchery make plays at the right times, rookie Devin Funchess has been steadily improving in the post-season, and tight end Greg Olsen (who leads the team by far in receptions and yards) is a reliable outlet for Newton on any and every given play.

But the Panthers' real strength is their shutdown defense. Safety Kurt Coleman tied for the league lead in interceptions this seasons, and he and cornerback Josh Norman are the cornerstones of one of the league's best secondaries. Linebacker Luke Kuechly had a game-changing pick-six against Carson Palmer in the NFC Championship Game; after that play, Palmer wasn't the same, and the Cardinals ended up turning over the ball seven times in a 49-15 blowout.

Denver Broncos:  It's hard not to feel bad for Peyton Manning. After a barnstorming 2013 year in which he set season records for touchdowns and passing yards, Manning had his ass unceremoniously handed to him literally from the first play of Super Bowl 48, which turned out to be a record-setting blowout. During the 2015 season, Manning set records for career yards and touchdowns, which are unlikely to be broken in the near future.

And yet despite Denver's buzzsaw defense, featuring all-world linebackers Demarcus Ware and Von Miller, the outcome looks much the same, this time because the Donks' offense isn't quite what it was a couple years ago. Receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryious Thomas are better on paper, but Thomas has had key drops all season. Ware, Miller, and CB Aqib Talib are likely to make some plays on defense, but ultimately, the Panthers have much more talent and momentum on both sides of the ball.

The one weakness Carolina has shown repeatedly all season is a knack for building formidable leads in the first half, only to let their opponents come back in the second half. In fact, the Panthers had the worst second-half stats of just about any team in the entire league. They played to this pattern in the divisional playoffs against Seattle, leading 31-0 late n the second quarter before being forced to hold off the Seahags late in the game, ultimately winning 31-24. But the Panthers' merciless squashing of the upstart Cardinals showed that they were aware of that trend, and were finally ready to shut it down. Denver will be the unfortunate recipient of the Panthers' renewed efforts.

Final Score:  Panthers 38, Broncos 17

[Update 2/7/16 11:27 PST:  There ya go, after very nearly running the table throughout the entire post-season, and getting a Super Bowl matchup that should have been a no-brainer, the Donkeys go and pull off the upset. This makes the third year in a row that I have predicted the wrong team to win the Super Bowl.

There is a certain Hollywood symmetry to it, though -- this game was yet another record for Manning, his 200th career win, and his Super Bowl record now evens out to 2-2 (under four different head coaches, yet another record). Not that Manning's eventual first-ballot Hall of Fame selection was ever in doubt, but if he's going to retire -- and he really should -- this is certainly the way to go out.

As for the Panthers, what can you say? Their pass protection was poor, play execution sloppy, ball control unreliable. Turnovers and poor offensive play in general did them in. This was easily their worst game of the entire 2015 campaign. You wouldn't have known to look at them today that Carolina had gone 15-1 in the regular season, with a +6 turnover ratio and a 35:01 time-of-possession average, or that in the two previous post-season games, they had not been behind a single second, and in fact had been in the lead 112 out of 120 total minutes. Today they were in a hole for the entire game, and played like it.

The good news for the Panthers is that the team should remain largely intact for 2016, where Denver probably won't.]

NFL Conference Championship Predictions

As much as I dislike the Patriots and Broncos, I have to admit that the final four team in the playoffs are also the best teams of their respective conferences. These should be good games, leading to a good Super Bowl. You can't say that every year. Place your bets, folks.

AFC Championship Game
New England (-3) at Denver:  Just what you always wanted, another Patsies-Donkeys showdown. It's a testament not only to the consistency of the two quarterbacks, but of the dearth of consistent competition in the rest of the AFC. Whether it's Tom Brady's bland, lifeless diet, or Peyton Manning's tedious fake audibles, there's something in this game for everyone to hate on. This is almost certainly Peyton Manning's final season, unless he has some sort of weird death wish, so this 17th matchup between the two quarterbacks is probably the last.

As for the game itself, the Patriots won their first ten games of the season before losing in Denver on November 29th, 30-24 in overtime. The Patsies' late-season fade, losing four of their final six games, cost them their top playoff seeding, which is why this game is in Denver rather than Foxborough. Denver has a middling offense at best, but their defense is first in total yards and passing yards allowed, third in rush yards, and fourth in points allowed. New England has one of the better offenses (except for their 30th-ranked rushing attack), and a mostly top-10 defense.

Manning is about as rested and healthy as he's going to get, but it's going to be the Donkeys' D that makes the difference in this one. New England's o-line is banged up, and Denver DC Wade Phillips is going to put the pressure on Brady all day. Fun fact #1: Denver is the only team in the league that Brady has a losing record against (6-8). Fun fact #2: Brady is the only one of the four starting QBs this weekend that was not a #1 overall draft pick -- yet he has three more winning Super Bowl rings than the other three QBs combined.
Final Score:  Broncos 21, Patriots 20

NFC Championship Game
Arizona (+3) at Carolina:  Either of these teams is better than the Broncos or Patriots, which should give you an idea of how the Super Bowl will roll (though I'm not 100% convinced that the Cardinals would beat the Patriots). Both Arizona and Carolina derped their respective ways through last week's divisional home stands, barely holding off clearly inferior opponents.

In the Panthers' case, they had the Seattle Seahawks down 31-0 at halftime before letting up and allowing Seattle to score 24 points in what was almost a legendary comeback. This is a highly disciplined unit that is unlikely to repeat that mistake. The Cardinals, on the other hand, were barely competitive against a wounded Packers team that Arizona had handily throttled just two weeks earlier. Only a fluke deflection touchdown saved them from what would have been an epic collapse.

Bruce Arians is a good coach, and one of the more colorful characters in the league. It would be nice to see Larry Fitzgerald get a ring. But it's a long trip to the East Coast, and the Panthers are also a well-coached team with a brutal defense, and a need to show that they can get a good team down and keep them there. Mark it right now:  the Carolina Panthers are going to win Super Bowl 50.
Final Score:  Panthers 30, Cardinals 17

[Update 1/28/16 10:00 PST:  Almost nailed the Pats-Donks score on the money, and even almost had the Cards' point total. But it's the Carolina Panthers that really showed me something with their dismantling of the hapless Cardinals who, while you wouldn't have known it to watch them against Carolina, had the top offense in the league, and were second in passing yards and points scored. I'll do a Super Bowl preview/prediction with all the specifics next Friday, after the injury rosters for the game are released, but right now the game looks like a mismatch much greater than the average spread (3.5 at the beginning of the week; currently 6.5 in most spreads) would indicate. Denver's defense is very good, no doubt; it got them this far. But the Panthers' D is just as good, maybe better in some respects, and their offense is much better than Denver's.]

NFL Wild Card Predictions

It's that time of year again, where we attempt to brush off our withered pigskin prognostication skills, and make some semi-educated guesses as to the outcomes of the second-most corrupt sport. This opening weekend of the playoffs is highly unusual in that the Washington Redskins are the only home team favored to win, and none of the home-team starting quarterbacks has so much as a single playoff game under his belt. As always, no wagering.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Houston Texans:  One of the more interesting matchups of the wild-card weekend, this is a tale of two teams that got off to miserable starts this season, before getting their respective acts together and finishing strong. The Chiefs overcame a 1-5 start to win their last ten games, barely losing out on the AFC West divisional title to the limping Denver Broncos. The Texans started off 1-6, then winning eight of their last nine and winning the lowly AFC South, which explains the injustice of a 9-7 team hosting an 11-5 team for a playoff game.

Both teams have achieved their competitive momentum with strong, aggressive defenses, and game-managing offenses that feature low-risk, low-yield playbooks. Kansas City's only win in that dismal 1-5 start was a 27-20 victory in Houston in the season opener, and Alex Smith has been a much more consistent quarterback than whichever former Tom Brady backup Houston coach Bill O'Brien has been stuck with starting. (It will be Brian Hoyer for this game.)
Final Score:  Chiefs 24, Texans 14

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Cincinnati Bengals:  Playoff matchups between division rivals are always a coin flip, and it seems to be more true in the AFC North division. The Bengals and Steelers split their two division games this season, winning at each others' stadiums. Cincinnati started 8-0 before losing four of their last eight games, all to playoff-bound teams. Pittsburgh has been extremely sporadic and streaky throughout its 10-6 2015 campaign, with and without Ben Roethlisberger, who has overcome serious injuries this season to regain leadership over the team, and its strong 6-2 finish in the second half of the season.

The big problem for the hard-luck Bengals is, despite a 12-4 record and a home-field playoff game, is that there's a big drop-off from Andy Dalton to A.J. McCarron at quarterback. The Steelers' offense finished fifth in points scored, and third in passing yards and total yards. If McCarron falls behind early and can't figure out Pittsburgh's d-scheme, Cincinnati is headed for yet another one-and-done playoff run.
Final Score:  Steelers 31, Bengals 20

Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) at Minnesota Vikings:  The Seahawks, who crushed the Broncos in Super Bowl 48 and would have won #49 if their OC wasn't borderline retarded, limped to a 5-3 start this year before roaring to a 7-1 finish, without stud RB Marshawn Lynch. Those wins came at an average of nearly 20 points per game, including a 38-7 blowout in Minnesota just last month. Head coach Mike Zimmer has done a solid job in turning around a moribund Vikings team, but they are in the middle of the pack, while the Seahawks are top 5 in all offensive categories except passing yards (20th), and #1 or #2 in every major defensive category. This one could get ugly, even without Lynch.
Final Score:  Seahawks 38, Vikings 13

Green Bay Packers (+1) at Washington Redskins:  To call this a wild season for Washington would be a huge understatement. Hardly any major sports outlet predicted anything better than third place in the division, and maybe six wins for the year. The owner is a toxic asshole. The wife of the general manager was forced to apologize after accusing an ESPN reporter of sucking cock for access to news sources. The head coach, understanding that this was a fuck-or-walk season for his job, benched the franchise quarterback mid-season for a career backup.

And Jay Gruden's gamble paid off -- the 'skins went 4-2 in their weak NFC East division, and come in riding a four-game win streak. The offense is not great (10th in points scored, 11th in pass yards), but has been good enough to win when it needs to. They're hosting a playoff game when no realistic observer expected anything from them this year.

Green Bay, on the other hand, finished second in the NFC North, and so are the other team (besides Kansas City) that has a road playoff game against a team with a worse record. The Packers have simply not been the same since losing #1 WR Jordy Nelson in the preseason, though Aaron Rodgers has made the most of receivers James Jones and Randall Cobb. The game-ending Hail Mary to TE Richard Rodgers in Detroit last month probably saved the Pack's season, and chances are there aren't any other tricks like that in their bag.

Several things work in Green Bay's favor, however:  the Redskins' defense is bottom-10 in three of the four main defensive categories (rushing, passing, and total yards allowed; 17th in points allowed), which means Rodgers should be able to pick them apart with his arm and his extensive playoff experience. The Packers' defense is middling in most categories, but #6 in passing yards allowed, giving them a good chance to neutralize what has been Washington's main asset up to this point. This should be the main upset game of the weekend.
Final Score:  Packers 27, Redskins 21

[Update 1/10/16 9:30 PST:  Much as I'd love to take credit for picking all the winners this weekend, the fact is that Cincinnati and Minnesota really should have won their games. For the Bengals, it's a bit of karma -- at one point in their season opener at Oakland, in a rage over a block, Pacman Jones knocked Raiders rookie receiver Amari Cooper to the ground, sat on Cooper's chest, yanked Cooper's helmet off and beat Cooper's head against the helmet. That was Cooper's first game in the NFL, and instead of being ejected from the game, as it customary in such extreme instances, Jones was merely fined afterward, wasn't even penalized for unsportsmanlike conduct. To have their season end on Jones flipping out on somebody once again is perfect. As for Minnesota, that one just sucks, it's proof that there are no sure things in the league, especially for kickers. Onward to the divisionals!]

Rebels Without Pause

After a year punctuated more and more by health scares and cancelled shows, Lemmy has died. The seemingly indestructible icon passed just a couple of days after turning 70 on Christmas Eve, and just two weeks after ending the most recent leg of their world tour.

I only got to see Motörhead in concert once, back in 2001, but it was one of the most memorable shows out of the dozens I've been to over the years. For one, the venue in Chico, then known as the Brick Works, was small, maybe 500 in capacity but probably more like 300. For another, the band had arrived several hours before the show and headed straight for the all-day bar (Panama's) next door. A friend of mine called me at work at about 4:00, saying, "Guess who's sitting at the bar at Panama's?". I broke off early and headed over, and of course Lemmy was still sitting there, by himself, as the bar didn't usually pick up until 6:00 or so.

Some people are afraid to meet their idols, too intimidated, don't know what they'd say, whatever. I'm not one of those people; not that I know what to say, but those opportunities are rare and you shouldn't pass them up when they come along.

Politics By Other Means

So apparently the USDOJ has decided to step in and do something about widespread corruption in soccer's governing body, FIFA. Anyone else find this a bit weird?

In America, we decide who will be imperial custodian for the next four years -- thus serving as the figurehead for the decisions on where our perpetual-war-for-perpetual-peace campaign will touch down next -- by letting billionaires throw impossible amounts of money at a permanent-campaign machine, in order to provide the illusion of choice, between two maroons whom you wouldn't trust to clean your rain gutters. It is a system rife with incompetence, hypocrisy, nepotism, influence peddling, voting fraud and intimidation, ignorant and deceptive analysis from unqualified commentators, and worse. Its principal figures would, in a rational universe, be frog-marched to the nearest penitentiary, or at least be forced to find an honest means of employment.

The rest of the world, weary from the industrial-scale death and destruction of the previous century, have chosen to place their collective faith in institutions, especially international sports institutions, such as FIFA and the International Olympic Committee, both of which abide banana-republic levels of corruption as a matter of routine operations. That the appropriately-named Sepp Blatter is a crude peddler of thick envelopes is of little concern to the billions of fans who sublimate their violent urges through a frequently scoreless game that gets decided on penalty kicks.

Where the average 'murkin, steeped in his usual jingo juices and misunderstandings of history and geopolitics, really doesn't know all that much about the finer details of what his country's up to (not that it would matter; even if he knew, he still wouldn't care), the average Euro knows exactly what FIFA and the IOC are all about. Last year's World Cup in Brazil, with practically single-use stadia being built out in the middle of nowhere, and favelas being cleared both for last year's Cup and next year's Olympics, made it pretty clear that this is How Business Is Done in much of the world -- a stroke of the pen, the passing of cash-stuffed valises, the barrel of a gun.

Not that we're shocked at the morality of all that, come on. Our problem is that we got left out. The US Soccer Federation lobbied pretty hard for the 2018 and 2022 World Cup bids, we obviously already have high-capacity football stadiums all over the country, and to get shut out of those opportunities was unacceptable. Especially to lose out to a sweaty, oppressive bunghole like Qatar, which will have to spend an estimated $220 billion (yes, $220B; that is not a typo) to build transport capacity and temperature-controlled stadia, presumably with the bones of their enslaved, abused migrant workers.

There is some serious money to be made here, and some openly corrupt dickhead Euro with a silly name has decided to shut American interests out of the picture, precisely because we already have the highways and venues. These sports events have become nothing more than a way for international construction conglomerates to get excuses to build make-work infrastructural upgrades. There's not nearly as much money in holding these events in places that already have those things. That's all any of this is about. Dio Fa!

Super Bowl 49 Prediction

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks (pick, O/U 47½): With Vegas betting outlets moving the spread to a no-line "pick 'em", you might assume that this will be another one of those nail-biter Super Bowls that the Tom Brady-era Patsies are known for. After all, the three SB games they've won (SB 36, 38, and 39) were each by just three points, and the two (SB 42 and 46) they lost against the Giants were by three and four points respectively.

Now, I hate both teams (for different reasons), and will probably watch just the bare minimum of the game because I'm still recovering from being sick all last week, and there's nothing else on. So I don't have a dog in this fight. But these really are the two best teams right now in the league, certainly the best in their respective conferences, peaking at the right time.

No team and quarterback has done more with less on-field talent and roster stability than Brady has with what the Patsies have given him. Without a marquee receiver for at least two straight seasons, and a revolving door of running backs and defensive backs, Brady has managed to keep New England in strong contention year after year. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has finally come back after a barrage of injuries and surgeries to post one of his best seasons, and the Patriots had solid numbers in all major offensive and defensive categories, again without a ton of elite talent. Under-inflated balls might help here and there, but most of New England's victories throughout the regular season were blowouts.

On the other hand, where the Patsies have been very good, the Seahawks have been great, especially on the defensive side of the ball, finishing first and third in pass and run yards allowed respectively. They also finished first in running the ball, thanks to a career year from media mute Marshawn Lynch. Lynch's performance art antics aside, his "Beast Mode" persona is more than just hype, as the hapless Green Bay Packers found out the hard way last week, after holding Seattle scoreless in the first half.

It makes sense that observers might see two evenly matched teams, but I believe a closer look will show one team on its way up (that would be Seattle), while the other is on its way down (at least in terms of its usual expectations). It's not hard to understand why some might still pick the Patsies to squeak this one out, but I don't see it; in fact, the only reason the Packers were able to hang on as long as they did last week was because of a barrage of very uncharacteristic Seahawk turnovers in the first half. Wide receiver Jermaine Kearse had two embarrassing passes clank right off his hands into the arms of Green Bay defenders last week, but he also has made some brilliant catches throughout the playoffs, including last week's game-winner in overtime.

So it won't be the skull-fucking the Seahawks put on the hapless Denver Broncos last year, and there will probably be some heroic comeback attempt by Brady late in the game, I'm putting $50 on Seattle and the over.

Final score: Seattle 33, New England 20.

[As always, backpedaling and ballsplaining will be after the game, depending on how entertaining Katy Perry's wardrobe malfunction turns out.]

[Update 10:30 PST:  I don't think I've ever seen a team completely shit the bed quite this badly before in the big game, right up to the very end, culminating in what has to be the most all-time baffling play call ever. You have the best running back in the league and he's rolling hard, you're on the 1-yard line, with two timeouts and 30 seconds on the clock. Literally all Seattle had to do was give Marshawn Lynch three tries to punch it in. As soon as we saw them going into a shotgun formation the wife and I turned to each other and laughed, "What the fuck are they doing?". The brawl on the subsequent Patsies victory kneel-down was just icing on the cake; the Seahawks blew this thing even before that dumb play call, and they knew it. At the very least, that cost Russell Wilson a lot of money heading into his off-season contract negotiations.]

NFL Championship Game Predictions

I know, I've talked some trash -- and will continue to do so in the future -- about the nature and culture of the NFL, about its propensity for brushing over the off-field incidents, the catastrophic injuries, the slave system of the NCAA that feeds the machine by making unholy sums of money literally off the bodies of broke college kids, etc.

But the competition is the thing; I've been a football fan since I was like seven or eight years old, and so as always, despite my many misgivings about this (or indeed any professional) sport, here are the usual predictions. I would have hit last week's divisional games (and correctly, except for the upstart Colts surprising the Broncos at home, and weirdly sending that latter team into a full tailspin), but real-life circumstances have gotten amazingly busy lately (mostly very good, but still very busy).

Anyway, here are my semi-educated guessesinfallible predictions:

Green Bay (+7.5) at Seattle:  Both of these teams began the 2014 regular season with high expectations -- indeed, this matchup was highly anticipated back in September (the teams were matched up as the very first regular season game of 2014, with the Seahawks winning 36-16). However, both teams got off to very rough (for them) starts, identically going 5-3 in the first half of the season, then each getting hot at the right time and going 7-1 in the second half of the season.

So:  identical regular-season records at 12-4, both teams have elite quarterbacks and excellent defenses, indicating a close game. However, Seattle is very strong at home, losing only twice in the last three seasons (25-2 including playoffs), their defense is fantastic where Green Bay's is merely very good, Marshawn Lynch is a more punishing runner than Eddie Lacy (who again is still very good), and so on.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers refused to challenge trash-talking Seahawks CB Richard Sherman in their regular-season meeting, and as Rodgers appeared to be pretty banged-up last week against their lucky-break win against the Dallas Cowboys, Sherman may have yet another easy afternoon, freeing him up to blitz and harass Rodgers even more. Packers rookie WR Davante Adams is a budding star, and should have at least one or two big plays, but it won't be quite enough.

Also, too:  Did you see what Seahawk safety Kam Chancellor did last week, not once but twice on two consecutive plays? First half should stay close, but Seattle should pull away later in the game.

Final Score:  Seahawks 31, Packers 17.

Indianapolis (+6.5) at New England:  As a lifelong fan of the hapless Oakland Raiders, my disdain of Tom Brady is duly chronicled, primarily due to the refereeing travesty commonly known as The Tuck Rule Game. (As folks are fond of saying about anything and everything, Never Forget.) Ray Lewis had a valid point when he noted that Brady owes a good chunk of his Hall of Fame career to that particular game; it was in the media leading up to that game that coach Bill Belichick had questions about Brady and the Patriots' spotty defense, and it's more than likely that Brady would have been relegated or even traded, losing a home playoff game on a 4th-quarter fumble.

Anyhoo, despite all that, Brady has certainly performed as a top-tier QB for his career, and in the last couple seasons especially, without a true #1 wide receiver, has pushed the Patsies into the playoffs again and again, almost by force of sheer will. Non-murderous tight end Rob Gronkowski has returned to form after significant injury surgeries the last couple seasons, and is Brady's go-to guy.

Andrew Luck and the Colts are making a strong case already to be the AFC dynasty of the future, as Brady and Peyton Manning near retirement. The Colts still need a reliable #1 running back, having wasted a #1 pick in the trade for Cleveland's Trent Richardson last year. T.Y. Hilton has emerged as a #1 wide receiver, but they still need a complementary receiver opposite Hilton. Defensively, Indy is in the middle of the league, slightly better than New England against the pass, slightly worse against the run.

It's tempting to call for an upset on this one -- and it wouldn't be that surprising, but the Pats have the experience and the home-field advantage, and whatever deal with Beelzebub (and the refs) that took place over a decade ago.

Final Score:  Patriots 34, Colts 31.

[Updates and SB predictions immediately following the AFC game tonight.]

[Update:  Even when I'm right, I manage to get it a little wrong -- while I picked both winning teams, I had picked Seattle and Indy to beat the spread. Instead, the increasingly insufferable Seahawks played one of their worst, most inept games in several years, only to stage an epic 4th-quarter comeback, while the hapless Colts were hopelessly overmatched from the outset. Anyway, we get the expected Super Bowl matchup of Seahawks-Patriots, to which half the football-watching nation wonders, can't they both lose? We can at least be consoled by the fact that Tom Brady is getting closer and closer to retirement, while the Seahawks are about to have to make some tough and expensive decisions in free agency. Tune in on game day for our amazing Super Bowl prediction, and Katy Perry's cans.]