This year's matchup is sort of the turd icing on your typical Raiders fan's cake -- a hated divisional rival versus a former divisional rival (Seattle, of course, was moved from the AFC West to the NFC West in the 2002 league realignment.) However, any real football fan can appreciate the classic strength-versus-strength matchup here, with Denver's record-setting offense going against Seattle's aggressive, bone-crushing defense.
Casual fans got to meet all-pro trash-talker Richard Sherman in the wake of Sherman's game-saving coverage at the end of the NFC Championship Game, rousing the usual knuckle-dragging fucktards out of their caves for some routine racism. Just a reminder that, to (very) loosely paraphrase Faulkner, it isn't 2014 everywhere; in some places, it's more like 1864. While I found Sherman's amped-up woofing off-putting, to say the least, the fact of the matter is that he backs up his trash talk with his play, which is all any fan of the game can ask.
Further, Sherman turns out to be a decent guy, a sharp kid who made it from Compton to Stanford and tries to serve as a role model for other inner-city kids looking for a ladder to climb. He's an outstanding student of the game, and there's no doubt he's spent the last couple weeks watching how Peyton Manning deploys his fleet of receivers. Sherman will almost certainly have an impact in the game, either a pick or some key tackles, or some combination.
But assuming the weather is not too terrible (and it appears just to be very cold, but no rain or snow), the odds are with Denver. The Seahawks' defense only allowed about a third of opponents' red zone offensive drives to end in touchdowns, so expect some of the Broncos's efforts to peter out into field goals, diluting their impact somewhat. And to compound the "strength-versus-strength" trope with even more specificity, consider this: Denver's offense is first in the league in converting on third and fourth down, and Seattle's defense is also first in preventing such conversions.
(If you're a sports-stat geek, you are probably already aware of Football Outsiders, but if not, you'll love it. They compile a mind-boggling array of numbers, but in a way that doesn't require a PhD in statistics to comprehend.)
Anyway, it seems that the Seahawks' offense might be the weak link here, not by a great deal, but in the sense that they just won't be quite able to keep up with Manning and the Broncos' offense. Manning is infamously the most astute and obsessive film student in the game, and you can bet he's dissected Seattle's powerhouse secondary just as much as Sherman has picked apart the Denver offense. Look for Manning to victimize safety Earl Thomas, with WR DeMaryious Thomas over the top, and TE Julius Thomas (yeah, I know, all these Thomases, and none of them related, afaik) up the seam. Earl Thomas has been burned in coverage a few times over the past month or so by opposing QBs, and so will probably be considered a point of vulnerability to exploit by Manning.
Early looks at this matchup made me assume a slow first half, followed by Denver breaking away in the second half, but I think Seattle may keep it closer after all, if returning speedster Percy Harvin can break even a couple of big plays off for them. Denver's run D is weak, and Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch seems to be in his trademark "beast mode" lately.
To the extent that I have a dog in this fight, I would like to see Seattle win it, if only because they have never done so before, and because it would be slap in the face of the twittard racists (who I sincerely hope will kindly do the world a huge fucking favor and die before they reproduce). But Manning will probably come out of this with his second ring (which would be the first time a QB has won a SB with two different teams), though the Seahawks will make him work for it. It should be an excellent game regardless.
Prediction: Broncos 31, Seahawks 30.
[Update 10:00 PM PST: Holy shit, talk about being wrong on almost every factor. The only thing I got right was that Seattle's defense was just unstoppable -- getting a safety on the very first play from scrimmage, holding Denver to just 11 offensive yards in their first 3 possessions, and shutting the Broncos out until the very end of the 3rd quarter, when they finally allowed them their only points for the night. Denver's secondary was banged up, playing backups in mostly soft coverage, and Russell Wilson took advantage of that with a decisive performance.
This may be a case of two organizational ships passing in the night, going in different directions. Seattle is young, and has relatively few key free agents in this coming off-season, while Denver in general -- and Manning in particular -- skew older, and may lose key slot receiver Eric Decker to free agency. Certainly the Broncos should be expected to at least make the playoffs next season, but the Seahawks will easily be the Vegas odds-on favorite for another full run.]
Casual fans got to meet all-pro trash-talker Richard Sherman in the wake of Sherman's game-saving coverage at the end of the NFC Championship Game, rousing the usual knuckle-dragging fucktards out of their caves for some routine racism. Just a reminder that, to (very) loosely paraphrase Faulkner, it isn't 2014 everywhere; in some places, it's more like 1864. While I found Sherman's amped-up woofing off-putting, to say the least, the fact of the matter is that he backs up his trash talk with his play, which is all any fan of the game can ask.
Further, Sherman turns out to be a decent guy, a sharp kid who made it from Compton to Stanford and tries to serve as a role model for other inner-city kids looking for a ladder to climb. He's an outstanding student of the game, and there's no doubt he's spent the last couple weeks watching how Peyton Manning deploys his fleet of receivers. Sherman will almost certainly have an impact in the game, either a pick or some key tackles, or some combination.
But assuming the weather is not too terrible (and it appears just to be very cold, but no rain or snow), the odds are with Denver. The Seahawks' defense only allowed about a third of opponents' red zone offensive drives to end in touchdowns, so expect some of the Broncos's efforts to peter out into field goals, diluting their impact somewhat. And to compound the "strength-versus-strength" trope with even more specificity, consider this: Denver's offense is first in the league in converting on third and fourth down, and Seattle's defense is also first in preventing such conversions.
(If you're a sports-stat geek, you are probably already aware of Football Outsiders, but if not, you'll love it. They compile a mind-boggling array of numbers, but in a way that doesn't require a PhD in statistics to comprehend.)
Anyway, it seems that the Seahawks' offense might be the weak link here, not by a great deal, but in the sense that they just won't be quite able to keep up with Manning and the Broncos' offense. Manning is infamously the most astute and obsessive film student in the game, and you can bet he's dissected Seattle's powerhouse secondary just as much as Sherman has picked apart the Denver offense. Look for Manning to victimize safety Earl Thomas, with WR DeMaryious Thomas over the top, and TE Julius Thomas (yeah, I know, all these Thomases, and none of them related, afaik) up the seam. Earl Thomas has been burned in coverage a few times over the past month or so by opposing QBs, and so will probably be considered a point of vulnerability to exploit by Manning.
Early looks at this matchup made me assume a slow first half, followed by Denver breaking away in the second half, but I think Seattle may keep it closer after all, if returning speedster Percy Harvin can break even a couple of big plays off for them. Denver's run D is weak, and Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch seems to be in his trademark "beast mode" lately.
To the extent that I have a dog in this fight, I would like to see Seattle win it, if only because they have never done so before, and because it would be slap in the face of the twittard racists (who I sincerely hope will kindly do the world a huge fucking favor and die before they reproduce). But Manning will probably come out of this with his second ring (which would be the first time a QB has won a SB with two different teams), though the Seahawks will make him work for it. It should be an excellent game regardless.
Prediction: Broncos 31, Seahawks 30.
[Update 10:00 PM PST: Holy shit, talk about being wrong on almost every factor. The only thing I got right was that Seattle's defense was just unstoppable -- getting a safety on the very first play from scrimmage, holding Denver to just 11 offensive yards in their first 3 possessions, and shutting the Broncos out until the very end of the 3rd quarter, when they finally allowed them their only points for the night. Denver's secondary was banged up, playing backups in mostly soft coverage, and Russell Wilson took advantage of that with a decisive performance.
This may be a case of two organizational ships passing in the night, going in different directions. Seattle is young, and has relatively few key free agents in this coming off-season, while Denver in general -- and Manning in particular -- skew older, and may lose key slot receiver Eric Decker to free agency. Certainly the Broncos should be expected to at least make the playoffs next season, but the Seahawks will easily be the Vegas odds-on favorite for another full run.]
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