Apocalypse How

People have been prophesying doom since the dawn of civilization, no doubt. Any and all Cassandras should be taken with a grain of salt.

So should we, knowing what we know about the world around us and the various elements that propel its crises, retain a dollop of healthy skepticism about the "rational optimists".

Our progress is unsustainable, he argues, only if we stifle innovation and trade, the way China and other empires did in the past. Is that possible? Well, European countries are already banning technologies based on the precautionary principle requiring advance proof that they’re risk-free. Americans are turning more protectionist and advocating byzantine restrictions like carbon tariffs. Globalization is denounced by affluent Westerners preaching a return to self-sufficiency.

But with new hubs of innovation emerging elsewhere, and with ideas spreading faster than ever on the Internet, Dr. Ridley expects bottom-up innovators to prevail. His prediction for the rest of the century: “Prosperity spreads, technology progresses, poverty declines, disease retreats, fecundity falls, happiness increases, violence atrophies, freedom grows, knowledge flourishes, the environment improves and wilderness expands.”

Yes, indeedy, if one occurs, generally the other follows. However, to take a cursory glance at the (for now) largest economy and proverbial 800-pound gorilla, real wages have stagnated (other than a blip during the Clinton years) since the mid '70s. Other notable metrics -- life expectancy, infant mortality, educational level and achievement -- have regressed. We don't manufacture anything anymore; we refuse to force the 1% who own half of everything to spread even 1-2% around the bottom quintile, because we think we'll win the lottery someday; and as anyone who observes the California referendum process year after excruciating year, we want all services without having to, you know, pay for them.

There is always the quantum possibility of unforeseeable, catalyzing "black swan" events, but even without that, we seem perfectly content with turning "stupid" into an active verb, and "stupiding" ourselves to death, or at least penury.