Sunday, February 12, 2006

Operation Kevlar Turban™: I Ran So Far Away

Cab Drollery links to a very timely letter from the Pak Tribune, attributed anonymously to a former Pakistani fighter pilot, which highlights the consequences of Bush's buffoonery vis à vis the vaunted Axle of Elvis, more specifically Iran. Definitely check it out.

Basically, our options with Iran currently are:
  • unilateral sanctions (ineffective);

  • multilateral sanctions (not going to happen w/out Russia and China);

  • Israeli strike(limited utility and certain reprisal);

  • American invasion (you thought Iraq was a fucking quagmire);

  • bargaining (which here is not one of the five stages of grief, but rather a tacit acknowledgement that previous bluster was, como se dice, ineffective to say the least).

There is actually one other option supposedly on the table, which the UK Telegraph helpfully spells out: an all-out American strike.

Strategists at the Pentagon are drawing up plans for devastating bombing raids backed by submarine-launched ballistic missile attacks against Iran's nuclear sites as a "last resort" to block Teheran's efforts to develop an atomic bomb.

Central Command and Strategic Command planners are identifying targets, assessing weapon-loads and working on logistics for an operation, the Sunday Telegraph has learnt.

They are reporting to the office of Donald Rumsfeld, the defence secretary, as America updates plans for action if the diplomatic offensive fails to thwart the Islamic republic's nuclear bomb ambitions. Teheran claims that it is developing only a civilian energy programme.

Normally, I'd be inclined to take all this with a grain of salt -- after all, one thing the military does to death is draw up plans for any and all eventualities. No doubt there are contingency plans to invade Canada somewhere. They'll never be used, but just in case....

"This is more than just the standard military contingency assessment," said a senior Pentagon adviser. "This has taken on much greater urgency in recent months."

Well, color me surprised. Seriously, though, it's hard to know exactly where the official psy-ops end and the reality of it begins. War campaigns always get an early rollout, to gradually soften up the populace to the idea of military aggression. This time around though, it's proving to be a bit touchy. Not because of public sentiment so much -- yes there are polls, but without public displays of dissent, they're just polls -- but because of consistent stats of military recruitment troubles. Nobody in the armed forces wants to take a bunch of reservists on their third go-round in Al Anbar, and send them next door to Iran, not to mention Moqtada al-Sadr's promise to fight within Iraq should Iran be attacked by us.

No, the sad fact of it all is, as the letter-writer pointed out, we are in a box of our own making here. Iran is not Iraq; the orthography is the only thing the two have remotely in common. They are much larger, much more powerful, much more entrenched in regional and international politics. We cannot do anything about them military without at least having Russia and China sign off and agree not to interfere, which is probably not gonna happen. The Euros won't help us; our snotty little remarks during the buildup to Iraq saw to that.

Maybe we can get Big Time some sniper training, and he can take Ahmadinejad out. Good luck with that one. In the meantime, nice work as always, folks. At least you kept the homos in their place.


Anonymous said...

Cool stuff, heywood. You ought to update your list of greatest hits--you've been writing some really good things in the meanwhile. And your phrase "have a nice tall glass of shut-the-fuck-up" shold make it to this year's edition of the OED.

Here's some more on the utter lack of realistic options the US faces with regard to Crazamaddinejad and his pals:


cavanaghjam said...

One possible motivator for a strike against Iran is the opening of a bourse, I believe in Tehran. This will be, at least at first, an oil market where present day bbls and futures will be traded. The kicker is that, for the first time, the currency used will not be dollars. I learned this from some business literature (and I can't remember which literature, so no link; sorry) about a year ago and dismissed it cuz it didn't seem important. I've since reconsidered after seeing the post-election fiscal direction of the U.S.

One cannot overestimate the effect that bartering oil in U.S. dollars has on the strength of the dollar. It makes the oil business a prop for American profligacy.

Heywood J. said...

Thanks, Marius. As always, great to see you in here. You're right about the updates -- I've just been a bit lazy about it. I have to review the archives and pick the ones I like. I should probably rotate some of the older ones out. And I used to change out the blockquote color schemes every month or so, but that seems to have fallen by the wayside. Eh, only so many hours in the day.

Thanks, for the link, btw. Very informative. I may cook up something over the weekend between that article and some stuff from the Global Security site.

Heywood J. said...

Cavanagh, you're right about the bourse, and that the Iranians are setting up to switch their reserve currency from dollars over to euros. I saw that article last year also, and covered it at the time (either January or February; I'll have to dig up a link for you later).

I have no idea why that story has not gotten more attention. Well, I do, but I generally try to avoid the appearance of tinfoil hattery. Still, as Jeff Wells says, not everything is a conspiracy -- just the important stuff.

Craig Heath said...

Everything is a conspiracy except masturbation.

"...if you see two businessmen having lunch together, they are probably engaged in a conspiracy against the public."

- Adam Smith (paraphrased)

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