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Tuesday, September 05, 2006

The House That Karl Built

Hopefully the reports of the wingers' impending demise are not exaggerated.

Now, though, as the congressional election season kicks off in earnest this Labor Day weekend, nobody is talking about realignment. Rather, Republicans concede they are struggling to cling to power.

Numerous political analysts are forecasting that a tidal wave of voter dissatisfaction will wash incumbent Republicans out of office on Nov. 7 and possibly hand control of the House back to Democrats, who also are poised to make gains in the Senate and win back governorships.

"The Republicans had a great run for a while, and it's over," said Charlie Cook, a nonpartisan analyst and founder of the Cook Political Report.

Rove's thinking was based on the 1896 presidential campaign of William McKinley. McKinley tried to revamp the GOP's image, appealing to immigrants and workers. More than a century later, Rove has sought to reach out to African-American and Latino voters, as well as socially conservative Democrats and independents.


I have compared this administration to that of McKinley's more than a few times over the past couple years. It's not all that reassuring to see that validated by the "serious" media. One thing that is reassuring, however, is that this time around, the cynical overtures don't seem to be playing nearly as well as they did in the Gilded Age (not that such efforts succeeded all that well then, either).

Republican leaders acknowledge they will lose seats this year, noting that the party that controls the White House almost always loses seats in the sixth year of a two-term presidency.

"There's no question that this will be a tough cycle," said White House political director Sara Taylor. Still, she added, "I'm confident we'll retain our majorities."

When it comes to handling the war on terrorism and guiding the economy, Taylor insisted, Americans are more likely to trust the GOP. "I think Americans have confidence in the Republican Party and the president to keep them safe," she said.


Way to slap lipstick on that there pig, Sara. You're certainly earning your keep. There must be a pony in there somewhere, right dear?

But never fear, the usual doubting Thomases will show up and tell Democrats what they really need to do.

Some Democrats, however, warn that simply capitalizing on the Republicans' woes in November will not be enough for the party to regain dominance.

"Democrats can't be complacent, because it's not clear that we have sold disenchanted voters on our agenda," said Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. "That's the real test of this election. Can we start making inroads with voters, particularly in rural areas that over the last decade have tended to vote social issues as opposed to their pocketbook issues?"


Obama seems to be getting mighty handy at pulling on his Helpy Helperton outfit and making these broad suggestions, without ever offering much in the way of specifics. If by "inroads" he means making a concerted effort to help these people re-prioritize their concerns, that maybe there are more important things on America's table right now than gay marriage and shredding Roe v. Wade, fine.

But if he means just another tiresome series of cynical genuflections to try to reel in the jesusier/patrioticer-than-thou buffoons, no thanks. There's no need for that -- they were wrong about Chimpco, we were right. Doesn't mean we have to rub their noses in it (although, you know, it'd be fun) but it sure as hell does mean you don't really need to go hat-in-hand to them.

If the disaffected Dobson wing want to get off their high horses, keep their "social concerns" to themselves, and roll up their sleeves and start figuring out ways to really set this country back on track, great. Otherwise, why would the Democrats want anything to do with 'em? Find a new niche to motivate, brand them, and leave the goofball wing in the wreckage of the big tent.

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