Busy weekend, so I didn't have time to check with any of the stat sites I normally rely on for close analysis of these two games. Also, too, since I dislike all four teams, I find myself not really caring much.
Still, it's a chance to guess somewhat correctly, so here goes. As always, caveat bettor.
AFC Championship Game -- New England (+5.5) at Denver: If the NFL were the Catholic Church, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning would be living canonical saints. As much as I dislike both teams, I have to admit that both QBs have made careers out of making the teams around them better, with rigorous study and skill.
Yes, the Patsies pwned a marginally competent Indianapolis defense back in Boston last week, but Denver, to say the least, ain't Boston. Yes, the eventual Super Bowl champ Baltimore Ravens went into Denver for last year's conference championship and came out victorious -- but with some seriously lucky breaks. Don't see that happening this time around, but Brady and Manning will at least keep it interesting, and if you're betting spread, the Pats should beat the 5½-point spread, but that won't be quite enough. Omaha! Omaha!
Prediction: Broncos 38, Patriots 35.
NFC Championship Game -- San Francisco (+3.5) at Seattle: Given the Seahawks' fearsome 15-1 home record over the last two seasons, and the Niners' wild-card status making this an exhausting third playoff weekend in a row, it seems like the spread should be larger. Yet San Francisco is surging at the same time Seattle has hit a relative slump. Seattle's lone home loss came at the hands of an Arizona Cardinals team that narrowly missed the playoffs, and a then-winless Tampa Bay team took them to overtime during mid-season, so that home record may not be as bulletproof as the record implies.
In their last 5 games (4 regular season and last week's playoff game hosting the Saints), Seattle QB Russell Wilson has thrown 4 TD and 3 INTs, and been sacked 17 games. San Francisco's success has been contingent on aggressive defense and controlled QB play from Colin Kaepernick that minimizes mistakes and gives underrated RB Frank Gore time to wear down opposing defenses. Still, Seattle's own punishing D should be able to salvage this, and get them into their first Super Bowl since the 2006 season. But if there's an upset to be had today, it's here.
Prediction: Seahawks 21, 49ers 20.
[Update 1/19 8:15 PST: Well, finally go 100% for the day, though not without some help from the refs in Seattle. And what the fuck is up with Richard Sherman? Good player, might want to dial it down, at least until he actually has that ring. We'll have some Super Bowlpredictionsguesses for you the day before game time. In the meantime, back to your regularly scheduled programming.]
Still, it's a chance to guess somewhat correctly, so here goes. As always, caveat bettor.
AFC Championship Game -- New England (+5.5) at Denver: If the NFL were the Catholic Church, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning would be living canonical saints. As much as I dislike both teams, I have to admit that both QBs have made careers out of making the teams around them better, with rigorous study and skill.
Yes, the Patsies pwned a marginally competent Indianapolis defense back in Boston last week, but Denver, to say the least, ain't Boston. Yes, the eventual Super Bowl champ Baltimore Ravens went into Denver for last year's conference championship and came out victorious -- but with some seriously lucky breaks. Don't see that happening this time around, but Brady and Manning will at least keep it interesting, and if you're betting spread, the Pats should beat the 5½-point spread, but that won't be quite enough. Omaha! Omaha!
Prediction: Broncos 38, Patriots 35.
NFC Championship Game -- San Francisco (+3.5) at Seattle: Given the Seahawks' fearsome 15-1 home record over the last two seasons, and the Niners' wild-card status making this an exhausting third playoff weekend in a row, it seems like the spread should be larger. Yet San Francisco is surging at the same time Seattle has hit a relative slump. Seattle's lone home loss came at the hands of an Arizona Cardinals team that narrowly missed the playoffs, and a then-winless Tampa Bay team took them to overtime during mid-season, so that home record may not be as bulletproof as the record implies.
In their last 5 games (4 regular season and last week's playoff game hosting the Saints), Seattle QB Russell Wilson has thrown 4 TD and 3 INTs, and been sacked 17 games. San Francisco's success has been contingent on aggressive defense and controlled QB play from Colin Kaepernick that minimizes mistakes and gives underrated RB Frank Gore time to wear down opposing defenses. Still, Seattle's own punishing D should be able to salvage this, and get them into their first Super Bowl since the 2006 season. But if there's an upset to be had today, it's here.
Prediction: Seahawks 21, 49ers 20.
[Update 1/19 8:15 PST: Well, finally go 100% for the day, though not without some help from the refs in Seattle. And what the fuck is up with Richard Sherman? Good player, might want to dial it down, at least until he actually has that ring. We'll have some Super Bowl
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