New Orleans (+8) at Seattle: As close to a dead lock as you'll find this weekend, this replay of the Week 13 matchup will probably not be as bad as the 34-7 throttling the Saints endured, but still won't be pretty. Seattle has the #1 pass (and #1 overall) defense in the league; while New Orleans' #2 pass D keeps them in this, they have been vulnerable to the run all year. Look for Marshawn Lynch to power through early and often. Seattle's infamously loud stadium will probably thump into Puget Sound seconds after the game concludes.
Prediction: Seahawks 31, Saints 13.
Indianapolis (+7) at New England: This is the only game of the four this weekend where the teams did not play each other during the regular season. My loathing for all thing Brady and Patsies is deep and abiding, and well-chronicled and archived, so I won't belabor it. Suffice to say, though, that Brady and his team have gotten it done despite an epically hard-luck season; after shelling out record cash for their all-world tandem of tight ends, Aaron Hernandez sits in jail awaiting trial on first-degree murder charges, and Rob Gronkowski, after going through four forearm surgeries and a back surgery last offseason, is out again, this time with a torn ACL and MCL.
After being that snakebitten, and having no true #1 WR or RB, somehow the Pats managed to go 12-4, although they played just four playoff-bound teams in the regular season (winning two, each by three points). However, New England closed strong in their final two games, and did not lose at home all season. After their astounding comeback last weekend, it would be nice to see the Colts power into Boston, kick ass and take names, but it's unrealistic to expect T.Y. Hilton to put up 224 yards every game, and Andrew Luck has no other big-play receivers to throw to. The Colts were streaky all season, beating good teams and then getting blown out by the Rams and Cardinals. Hate to say it, but take the Pats and the points.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Colts 20.
San Francisco (-1) at Carolina: Apparently the jury is still out on Cam Newton; nothing else explains the 49ers being favored here. Carolina beat San Francisco 10-9 back in Week 10, at Candlestick, and the Panthers' defense is second only to Seattle's in rushing and total yards. Since a 1-3 start, Carolina has only lost once, a 31-13 defeat in New Orleans, despite having the statistically toughest schedule (based on opponents' 2012 records) in the league. The Niners showed up and performed well in the frigid tundra of Green Bay last week, but a cross-country road trip to face a well-rested team might just be a bit much to ask.
Prediction: Panthers 16, 49ers 13.
San Diego (+9.5) at Denver: Not counting the SF-Carolina line, which I consider erroneous, this game is the most likely to be an upset. Odd fact: the other three teams still in the AFC Playoffs (Colts, Patriots, Chargers) are the three teams that beat the Broncos in the 2013 regular season. Of these, only San Diego beat the Broncos in Denver, just a few weeks ago. In that 27-20 victory, the Chargers were the only team all season to hold the record-setting Donks' offense below 400 yards.
Other odd facts: San Diego OC Ken Whisenhunt was the Steelers' OC in 2005 when that #6 seeded team (as the Chargers are) barnstormed through three road games (including Denver, for the AFC Championship) to eventually win a Super Bowl; Peyton Manning has a 9-11 playoff record overall, and 8 one-and-done postseasons; since 1990, the #1 seed in the AFC has won just 2 (of 23) Super Bowls, and been knocked out in the first playoff game 10 times; Denver has a dead-even (zero) turnover differential, almost unheard-of for a 13-3 team. Manning fumbled a record (for him) ten times this season, losing six, including one against San Diego in Week 15. This one is ripe for the taking, if the Chargers want it badly enough.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Denver 30.
[Update 1/12 10:00 PST: So much for the Panthers' defense. The swagger that they rode through the first half got jujitsued against them in the second half by a couple of excruciatingly long, patient Niner drives, until Carolina finally started losing their shit, getting stupid penalties and blowing coverage and tackles. If San Francisco can keep up their current momentum, they can and should give Seattle a run for their money; only the weather and a little bit of luck prevented the Saints from catching up to the Seahawks yesterday.
As for the AFC matchups, obviously I was pulling for San Diego, but they couldn't quite close the deal, and they would have been chewed up and spit out in Boston next week anyway. It pains me to acknowledge this, but the AFC Championship Game matchup really will be between the two best teams in the conference, taking into consideration that there are only a few teams in the conference that are even solid, much less consistently good. We'll see how the week and the weather go, and predict accordingly next weekend for the Super Bowl matchup.]
Prediction: Seahawks 31, Saints 13.
Indianapolis (+7) at New England: This is the only game of the four this weekend where the teams did not play each other during the regular season. My loathing for all thing Brady and Patsies is deep and abiding, and well-chronicled and archived, so I won't belabor it. Suffice to say, though, that Brady and his team have gotten it done despite an epically hard-luck season; after shelling out record cash for their all-world tandem of tight ends, Aaron Hernandez sits in jail awaiting trial on first-degree murder charges, and Rob Gronkowski, after going through four forearm surgeries and a back surgery last offseason, is out again, this time with a torn ACL and MCL.
After being that snakebitten, and having no true #1 WR or RB, somehow the Pats managed to go 12-4, although they played just four playoff-bound teams in the regular season (winning two, each by three points). However, New England closed strong in their final two games, and did not lose at home all season. After their astounding comeback last weekend, it would be nice to see the Colts power into Boston, kick ass and take names, but it's unrealistic to expect T.Y. Hilton to put up 224 yards every game, and Andrew Luck has no other big-play receivers to throw to. The Colts were streaky all season, beating good teams and then getting blown out by the Rams and Cardinals. Hate to say it, but take the Pats and the points.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Colts 20.
San Francisco (-1) at Carolina: Apparently the jury is still out on Cam Newton; nothing else explains the 49ers being favored here. Carolina beat San Francisco 10-9 back in Week 10, at Candlestick, and the Panthers' defense is second only to Seattle's in rushing and total yards. Since a 1-3 start, Carolina has only lost once, a 31-13 defeat in New Orleans, despite having the statistically toughest schedule (based on opponents' 2012 records) in the league. The Niners showed up and performed well in the frigid tundra of Green Bay last week, but a cross-country road trip to face a well-rested team might just be a bit much to ask.
Prediction: Panthers 16, 49ers 13.
San Diego (+9.5) at Denver: Not counting the SF-Carolina line, which I consider erroneous, this game is the most likely to be an upset. Odd fact: the other three teams still in the AFC Playoffs (Colts, Patriots, Chargers) are the three teams that beat the Broncos in the 2013 regular season. Of these, only San Diego beat the Broncos in Denver, just a few weeks ago. In that 27-20 victory, the Chargers were the only team all season to hold the record-setting Donks' offense below 400 yards.
Other odd facts: San Diego OC Ken Whisenhunt was the Steelers' OC in 2005 when that #6 seeded team (as the Chargers are) barnstormed through three road games (including Denver, for the AFC Championship) to eventually win a Super Bowl; Peyton Manning has a 9-11 playoff record overall, and 8 one-and-done postseasons; since 1990, the #1 seed in the AFC has won just 2 (of 23) Super Bowls, and been knocked out in the first playoff game 10 times; Denver has a dead-even (zero) turnover differential, almost unheard-of for a 13-3 team. Manning fumbled a record (for him) ten times this season, losing six, including one against San Diego in Week 15. This one is ripe for the taking, if the Chargers want it badly enough.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Denver 30.
[Update 1/12 10:00 PST: So much for the Panthers' defense. The swagger that they rode through the first half got jujitsued against them in the second half by a couple of excruciatingly long, patient Niner drives, until Carolina finally started losing their shit, getting stupid penalties and blowing coverage and tackles. If San Francisco can keep up their current momentum, they can and should give Seattle a run for their money; only the weather and a little bit of luck prevented the Saints from catching up to the Seahawks yesterday.
As for the AFC matchups, obviously I was pulling for San Diego, but they couldn't quite close the deal, and they would have been chewed up and spit out in Boston next week anyway. It pains me to acknowledge this, but the AFC Championship Game matchup really will be between the two best teams in the conference, taking into consideration that there are only a few teams in the conference that are even solid, much less consistently good. We'll see how the week and the weather go, and predict accordingly next weekend for the Super Bowl matchup.]
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