Have not bothered to write any football stuff this season yet, as my team, the hapless Oakland Raiders, have been mostly unwatchable and utterly wretched for more than a full decade now, and life is simply too short.
So now that the playoffs have begun, let's take a stab at some semi-educated picks. As always, no wagering.
Kansas City (-1.5) at Indianapolis: Since the Colts just beat the Chefs down in Arrowhead two weeks ago, and this game is being played in Indy, your guess is as good as mine as to why KC is favored at all for this. Neither team had a particularly rough schedule this season, and the Colts went 6-2 at home (though it should be noted that one of those losses was a 38-8 ass-kicking at the hands of a thoroughly mediocre Rams team).
The line of thinking may be that the Colts' offense is hamstrung by a lousy running game and only one decent wide receiver; their #2 WR, Darrius Heyward-Bey, has had a number of critical drops, and Luck appears to have lost confidence in him. The Colts certainly had a strong first half of the season, beating likely Super Bowl opponents Seattle and Denver in Weeks 5 and 7 respectively. But since their Week 8 bye, the only team with a winning record the Colts have been able to beat are the aforementioned Chefs.
Andy Reid is a cagey strategist with solid playoff experience, and this should be closer than the previous meeting, but I think the Colts squeak this one out, unless they completely whiff on containing dangerous Chefs RB Jamaal Charles. There's always an upset or two in the course of the playoffs, and technically this qualifies as one of them.
Prediction: Colts 21, Chiefs 17.
New Orleans (+3) at Philadelphia: Another surprising spread; while I agree with Philly as the favorite, any time a slumping dome team heads into a surging outdoor team in the middle of a serious cold snap, you should be looking at a minimum spread of 6-7 points. Factor in that the Saints have one of the worst home-road offensive differentials among any of the playoff teams, while the Eagles appear to have mastered Chip Kelly's innovative offense, after a slow start. No doubt part of New Orleans' strategy is to match up all-world tight end Jimmy Graham against wounded duck (no pun intended) safety Patrick Chung, but the nasty (wind chill in the teens; possible snow) weather will equalize that approach.
Ordinarily this would be a old-school last-team-to-score-wins shootout, but again, the weather will probably mitigate that to some extent. Still, there's a lot of talent on both teams here, so it should be interesting. The over-under on how many times the broadcasters mention that Nick Foles and Drew Brees attended the same high school is 13.
Prediction: Eagles 37, Saints 27.
San Diego (+7) at Cincinnati: Sunday's AFC wild-card matchup is also a situation where the host traveled to the visitor's stadium during the regular season and defeated them. However, in their Week 13 17-10 victory in San Diego, the Bengals were more evenly matched with the Chargers than, say the Colts and Chefs were in Arrowhead. Both Cincinnati and San Diego had 19 first downs, and nearly identical times of possession.
But San Diego in December is not Cincinnati in January, and West Coast teams do not do well in snow, which is likely tomorrow in Cincy. Both teams tend to turn the ball over frequently, and QBs Andy Dalton and Philip Rivers are streaky and take risks. Chargers RB Ryan Mathews appears to have gotten past his earlier struggles with injury and ball security (giggity), but Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict, a first-round prospect who went undrafted because of personal issues (and the fact he attended Arizona State), is turning out to be the steal of the last few years, leading the team in tackles. Burfict will probably give Mathews nightmares as he tries to run uphill through the snow, both ways.
The Bengals' running game is not much better than the Chargers', but it's better enough to make a difference. Add in the snow, and it looks like a frustrating day for a San Diego team that punched respectably above its weight several times this season.
Prediction: Bengals 20, Chargers 6.
San Francisco (-2.5) at Green Bay: Easily the toughest game this weekend to prognosticate. The weather, the rivalry, trying to guess which Colin Kaepernick will show up, or how close to 100% Aaron Rodgers really is. But all of that, in the end, is hype, and the fact is that this is simply strength against weakness -- the 49ers' potent running game against the Packers' horrifically weak run defense. SF has more healthy players on both sides of the ball, and can merely dink-and-dunk to Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, while punching Frank Gore up Green Bay's porous middle, made more vulnerable by LB Clay Matthews' season-ending thumb injury.
Rodgers has talented offensive weapons, to be sure, with powerful rookie RB Eddie Lacy figuring to be key to their ability to stay in the game. But the Niners' D are hungry ballers (again, giggity) who really just want to get back to Seattle to settle a contentious divisional rivalry. They don't have the weaknesses that Green Bay's defense does, and will concentrate on stuffing Lacy, forcing Rodgers to throw in what may be a record Arctic blast.
Somewhat perversely, said cold is the Packers' best hope; were it not for such conditions, this game would probably be a blowout.
Prediction: 49ers 16, Packers 13.
[Update 1/5 6:00 PM PST: Well, I suppose this is why they actually play the games, and why I watch them. I figured I'd go 3-1 or 2-2 for the weekend, but had assumed the whiffs would be on the Indy and Green Bay games, if anything. Philly and Cincy seemed like locks, but primarily because of the weather, which turned out to be a non-factor in both games.
So now the Colts will head to Bahhhston, and San Diego to Denver in the AFC, and New Orleans to Seattle and San Francisco to Carolina in the NFC. Needless to say, I'll be rooting for the underdogs in the AFC, but it's a bit tougher to do so in the NFC; I would actually prefer to see a Seattle-Carolina matchup for that conference. We'll see; stay tuned for divisional predictions this Friday or Saturday before kickoff.]
So now that the playoffs have begun, let's take a stab at some semi-educated picks. As always, no wagering.
Kansas City (-1.5) at Indianapolis: Since the Colts just beat the Chefs down in Arrowhead two weeks ago, and this game is being played in Indy, your guess is as good as mine as to why KC is favored at all for this. Neither team had a particularly rough schedule this season, and the Colts went 6-2 at home (though it should be noted that one of those losses was a 38-8 ass-kicking at the hands of a thoroughly mediocre Rams team).
The line of thinking may be that the Colts' offense is hamstrung by a lousy running game and only one decent wide receiver; their #2 WR, Darrius Heyward-Bey, has had a number of critical drops, and Luck appears to have lost confidence in him. The Colts certainly had a strong first half of the season, beating likely Super Bowl opponents Seattle and Denver in Weeks 5 and 7 respectively. But since their Week 8 bye, the only team with a winning record the Colts have been able to beat are the aforementioned Chefs.
Andy Reid is a cagey strategist with solid playoff experience, and this should be closer than the previous meeting, but I think the Colts squeak this one out, unless they completely whiff on containing dangerous Chefs RB Jamaal Charles. There's always an upset or two in the course of the playoffs, and technically this qualifies as one of them.
Prediction: Colts 21, Chiefs 17.
New Orleans (+3) at Philadelphia: Another surprising spread; while I agree with Philly as the favorite, any time a slumping dome team heads into a surging outdoor team in the middle of a serious cold snap, you should be looking at a minimum spread of 6-7 points. Factor in that the Saints have one of the worst home-road offensive differentials among any of the playoff teams, while the Eagles appear to have mastered Chip Kelly's innovative offense, after a slow start. No doubt part of New Orleans' strategy is to match up all-world tight end Jimmy Graham against wounded duck (no pun intended) safety Patrick Chung, but the nasty (wind chill in the teens; possible snow) weather will equalize that approach.
Ordinarily this would be a old-school last-team-to-score-wins shootout, but again, the weather will probably mitigate that to some extent. Still, there's a lot of talent on both teams here, so it should be interesting. The over-under on how many times the broadcasters mention that Nick Foles and Drew Brees attended the same high school is 13.
Prediction: Eagles 37, Saints 27.
San Diego (+7) at Cincinnati: Sunday's AFC wild-card matchup is also a situation where the host traveled to the visitor's stadium during the regular season and defeated them. However, in their Week 13 17-10 victory in San Diego, the Bengals were more evenly matched with the Chargers than, say the Colts and Chefs were in Arrowhead. Both Cincinnati and San Diego had 19 first downs, and nearly identical times of possession.
But San Diego in December is not Cincinnati in January, and West Coast teams do not do well in snow, which is likely tomorrow in Cincy. Both teams tend to turn the ball over frequently, and QBs Andy Dalton and Philip Rivers are streaky and take risks. Chargers RB Ryan Mathews appears to have gotten past his earlier struggles with injury and ball security (giggity), but Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict, a first-round prospect who went undrafted because of personal issues (and the fact he attended Arizona State), is turning out to be the steal of the last few years, leading the team in tackles. Burfict will probably give Mathews nightmares as he tries to run uphill through the snow, both ways.
The Bengals' running game is not much better than the Chargers', but it's better enough to make a difference. Add in the snow, and it looks like a frustrating day for a San Diego team that punched respectably above its weight several times this season.
Prediction: Bengals 20, Chargers 6.
San Francisco (-2.5) at Green Bay: Easily the toughest game this weekend to prognosticate. The weather, the rivalry, trying to guess which Colin Kaepernick will show up, or how close to 100% Aaron Rodgers really is. But all of that, in the end, is hype, and the fact is that this is simply strength against weakness -- the 49ers' potent running game against the Packers' horrifically weak run defense. SF has more healthy players on both sides of the ball, and can merely dink-and-dunk to Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, while punching Frank Gore up Green Bay's porous middle, made more vulnerable by LB Clay Matthews' season-ending thumb injury.
Rodgers has talented offensive weapons, to be sure, with powerful rookie RB Eddie Lacy figuring to be key to their ability to stay in the game. But the Niners' D are hungry ballers (again, giggity) who really just want to get back to Seattle to settle a contentious divisional rivalry. They don't have the weaknesses that Green Bay's defense does, and will concentrate on stuffing Lacy, forcing Rodgers to throw in what may be a record Arctic blast.
Somewhat perversely, said cold is the Packers' best hope; were it not for such conditions, this game would probably be a blowout.
Prediction: 49ers 16, Packers 13.
[Update 1/5 6:00 PM PST: Well, I suppose this is why they actually play the games, and why I watch them. I figured I'd go 3-1 or 2-2 for the weekend, but had assumed the whiffs would be on the Indy and Green Bay games, if anything. Philly and Cincy seemed like locks, but primarily because of the weather, which turned out to be a non-factor in both games.
So now the Colts will head to Bahhhston, and San Diego to Denver in the AFC, and New Orleans to Seattle and San Francisco to Carolina in the NFC. Needless to say, I'll be rooting for the underdogs in the AFC, but it's a bit tougher to do so in the NFC; I would actually prefer to see a Seattle-Carolina matchup for that conference. We'll see; stay tuned for divisional predictions this Friday or Saturday before kickoff.]
1 comment:
I was surprised that the Saints won in Philly. Niners-Pack could have gone either way, but that last drive was impressive by Kaepernick.
I've lived in the East Bay for 20 years, and never warmed up to the Raiders. Maybe if they had returned and not destroyed the Coliseum (yes, I remember the ice plants, and the views now gone) I would feel differently.
But after all it's just a circus - no bread for folks like us.
Keep up the blog - smart, biting stuff.
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