I used to do NFL game predictions and analysis throughout the playoffs, but stopped a couple seasons ago, thanks to a mediocre guessing percentage and decreasing interest on my part.
But this year's game should be a really good one, with the Chiefs favored by just a point, probably due to their amazing comeback and beatdown of the upstart Tennessee Titans, who where kind enough to pave the road for Kansas City by knocking out the two best teams in the AFC, the Ravens and the Patsies. After letting the Titans get ahead 24-0 by the second quarter, the Chiefs roared back with four touchdowns in just over six minutes of game time, taking the lead by halftime and never looking back, eventually smoking the overachieving Titans by twenty points.
The 49ers, on the other hand, have won most of their games with a punishing run attack that chews up the clock and keeps opposing offenses off the field. This will certainly be the strategy to use against Patrick Mahomes, who is arguably the best QB in the league right now, and has a wealth of fleet receivers to work with. When Mahomes is on the field, he'll face Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa, whose nine sacks on the year actually understate how disruptive he's been all year for opposing quarterbacks. Bosa finds himself in the backfield on more plays than not, and the Chefs will need to account for him at all times.
Look at the stats from the NFC Championship game from two weeks ago, with the Niners throttling the hapless Packers in a repeat performance from Green Bay's previous visit a couple months ago: Despite Green Bay compiling more total yards, first downs, and time of possession, they were down 27-0 by halftime and ended up losing 37-20, and it wasn't even that close. This is entirely due to just two things: San Francisco's defense causing three turnovers; and running back Raheem Mostert running like Bo Jackson from the old Tecmo Bowl game.
The Niners actually have three very good running backs, but Tevin Coleman got hurt (dislocated shoulder) early on in the championship game, and Matt Breida has had some fumbling issues lately. So Mostert rolled up 220 yards and four touchdowns on 29 carries, daring the hapless Packers to find an answer. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo threw just eight times the entire game.
Coleman is apparently healthy and ready to go, and should add some dimension to Mostert and possibly Breida in the running game. Garoppolo is nowhere near the quarterback Mahomes is, but he's mostly been a quietly efficient "game manager" type. SF coach Kyle Shanahan was, of course, the Atlanta Falcons' offensive coordinator in their disastrous 25-point choke to the Patsies in Super Bowl 51, but he has done a fantastic job all year with the 49ers, so if he manages to get up on the Chefs, expect him to drop the boot on their neck and grind the clock mercilessly. Kansas City's run defense was 26th in yards allowed this season, and that's including playing half-assed teams like Denver and Oakland twice each.
If the Niners' defense has a weakness, it's mobile quarterbacks. In five games during the regular season, QBs Lamar Jackson (Baltimore), Russell Wilson (Seattle), and Kyler Murray (Arizona) all proved difficult for SF to stop effectively. Mahomes doesn't scramble a lot (43 attempts for 218 yards and 2 TDs in the 2019 regular season), but when he does he averages 5.1 yards per carry, so he may give them some headaches.
It's really too close to call; this is strength against strength. Maybe the biggest surprise on the betting line was the 54.5 over/under. It seems like it should be something of a shootout on paper.
But it could also be very much like Super Bowl 48, where the irresistible force of Peyton Manning's league-melting offense met the immovable object of Seattle's "Legion of Boom" defense. In the end, I think the Niners' defense is better than the Chiefs' offense, and San Francisco's offense will be able to methodically grind the clock and give them their sixth Super Bowl ring.
Final Score: San Francisco 34, Kansas City 21.
But this year's game should be a really good one, with the Chiefs favored by just a point, probably due to their amazing comeback and beatdown of the upstart Tennessee Titans, who where kind enough to pave the road for Kansas City by knocking out the two best teams in the AFC, the Ravens and the Patsies. After letting the Titans get ahead 24-0 by the second quarter, the Chiefs roared back with four touchdowns in just over six minutes of game time, taking the lead by halftime and never looking back, eventually smoking the overachieving Titans by twenty points.
The 49ers, on the other hand, have won most of their games with a punishing run attack that chews up the clock and keeps opposing offenses off the field. This will certainly be the strategy to use against Patrick Mahomes, who is arguably the best QB in the league right now, and has a wealth of fleet receivers to work with. When Mahomes is on the field, he'll face Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa, whose nine sacks on the year actually understate how disruptive he's been all year for opposing quarterbacks. Bosa finds himself in the backfield on more plays than not, and the Chefs will need to account for him at all times.
Look at the stats from the NFC Championship game from two weeks ago, with the Niners throttling the hapless Packers in a repeat performance from Green Bay's previous visit a couple months ago: Despite Green Bay compiling more total yards, first downs, and time of possession, they were down 27-0 by halftime and ended up losing 37-20, and it wasn't even that close. This is entirely due to just two things: San Francisco's defense causing three turnovers; and running back Raheem Mostert running like Bo Jackson from the old Tecmo Bowl game.
The Niners actually have three very good running backs, but Tevin Coleman got hurt (dislocated shoulder) early on in the championship game, and Matt Breida has had some fumbling issues lately. So Mostert rolled up 220 yards and four touchdowns on 29 carries, daring the hapless Packers to find an answer. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo threw just eight times the entire game.
Coleman is apparently healthy and ready to go, and should add some dimension to Mostert and possibly Breida in the running game. Garoppolo is nowhere near the quarterback Mahomes is, but he's mostly been a quietly efficient "game manager" type. SF coach Kyle Shanahan was, of course, the Atlanta Falcons' offensive coordinator in their disastrous 25-point choke to the Patsies in Super Bowl 51, but he has done a fantastic job all year with the 49ers, so if he manages to get up on the Chefs, expect him to drop the boot on their neck and grind the clock mercilessly. Kansas City's run defense was 26th in yards allowed this season, and that's including playing half-assed teams like Denver and Oakland twice each.
If the Niners' defense has a weakness, it's mobile quarterbacks. In five games during the regular season, QBs Lamar Jackson (Baltimore), Russell Wilson (Seattle), and Kyler Murray (Arizona) all proved difficult for SF to stop effectively. Mahomes doesn't scramble a lot (43 attempts for 218 yards and 2 TDs in the 2019 regular season), but when he does he averages 5.1 yards per carry, so he may give them some headaches.
It's really too close to call; this is strength against strength. Maybe the biggest surprise on the betting line was the 54.5 over/under. It seems like it should be something of a shootout on paper.
But it could also be very much like Super Bowl 48, where the irresistible force of Peyton Manning's league-melting offense met the immovable object of Seattle's "Legion of Boom" defense. In the end, I think the Niners' defense is better than the Chiefs' offense, and San Francisco's offense will be able to methodically grind the clock and give them their sixth Super Bowl ring.
Final Score: San Francisco 34, Kansas City 21.
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