- Quarterback -- On paper, it's not even close, all-world darling Peyton Manning versus the oft-maligned Rex Grossman. The line on Grossman is that he's easy to fluster, too short, weak arm, blah blah blah. I'm still not convinced he's not all those things, but against a New Orleans team that was very solid on both sides of the ball, Grossman made some excellent halftime adjustments, and started picking apart Saints cornerback Fred Thomas, turning him around, exposing his coverage weaknesses, threading beautiful passes in, through, over, and around him. I think Grossman is somewhat underrated, in that his team still seems to believe in him, and he's not letting the naysayers get in his head. He may never be a great quarterback, but he doesn't have to be -- he just has to be good enough to win, and he seems to have that Kenny Stabler-like quality.
Manning, on the other hand, has not performed up to his usual capabilities in this postseason, getting picked off six times in the first two games (and there were two more easy picks in the Ravens game that were inadvertently smacked away by Ray Lewis). Manning's biggest ace card has been his pre-play hand-jive (70% of which is fake anyway), used to confound defenses. But Bill Parcells, of all people, figured out how to beat that one to hand the Colts their first regular-season loss this year, and most of the teams they've played since then have done the same. Look for the Bears defense to wait until as late as possible on the play clock to set up, to take away Manning's time to audible formations.
Against the Patriots, Manning did open the third quarter with a masterful quick-huddle drive that ate up half the quarter, and exhausted the Pats' front seven by not allowing them to rotate players between plays. (It didn't hurt that the heat was cranked up in the RCA Dome, which dehydrated and cramped the jet-lagged, flu-ridden Patriots. They won't have that little trick to play today.) It made a real difference in the final quarter. I don't think Chicago will fall for this; their defense is younger, stronger, and quicker, and led the league in takeaways for a reason.
Slight advantage: Colts - Running backs -- Both teams deploy tandem RB lineups, which is standard for teams without a superstar back. Of the four total starting RBs, the Colts' Joseph Addai is the real standout, but they're all pretty evenly matched.
Slight advantage: Colts - Receivers -- These teams are more evenly matched at WR than has generally been reported. Marvin Harrison gets all the props for his quiet competence and workmanlike performance, but Muhsin Muhammad, while also being sure-handed, is one of the best blocking receivers in the NFL. Count on him to handle Indy's smaller DBs, either running picks to open up lanes for speedster Bernard Berrian, or turning the DBs around to pick up short but necessary possession gains himself. Colts speed man Reggie Wayne will require double coverage most of the day, but can probably be contained. Chicago's secondary is not great, but still pretty good.
Advantage: Even - Offensive line -- The Colts have one of the better o-lines in the league. Center Jeff Saturday may be the best at his position playing right now, and left tackle Tarik Glenn has been key to Manning's success. The Bears' o-line is good, particularly center Olin Kreutz, but the Colts' is significantly better. The Bears' excellent front seven will make them work today, but an extended no-huddle drive could take away much of their playmaking ability.
Advantage: Colts - Defense -- The Colts' D gave up way too many rushing yards during the regular season, but have improved when it really counts, in the playoffs. Their front seven is good, but they will give up yards, and their secondary runs a Cover 2 scheme not terribly unlike the one New Orleans has, which Grossman was able to pick apart at the perfect time in the game to start running away with the lead. Colts safety Bob Sanders is the X factor on this defense, and an excellent run-stopper, but is fighting knee problems, and once Grossman figures out how to bring him up, split the coverage, and burn him deep, the Bears will get a score or two while the Colts try to adjust.
The Bears defense needs little explanation: league lead in takeaways; specializing in forcing fumbles and stripping the ball; probably the best linebacking tandem in the league with Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. As long as they're patient, and don't give Manning undeserved openings, they will keep the Bears in the game.
Advantage: Bears - Special teams -- Devin Hester terrorized other teams for the first half of the season with his breakaway return ability, but has been largely contained, and muffed a few lately. If he pulls it together, he could be the difference in the end. The Colts' return man, Terrence Wilkins, is also a threat, but not to the degree that Hester is, and Chicago's special teams coverage has been excellent. It may come down to clutch kicker Adam Vinatieri, but Bears' kicker Robbie Gould has been excellent as well.
Advantage: Bears
Ordinarily, given the AFC's dominance of recent years, and Manning's superior track record, I'd be inclined to go with the flow and pick Indianapolis. Manning's numbers and his reputation for intense preparation almost demand it. But they have not truly dominated any team in months, really, and have squeaked their way through the playoffs. Without New England's inexplicable luck in San Diego, and their equally inexplicable clock management toward the end in Indy, the Colts would have been home already. Even the Ravens should have beaten them, giving Manning's flustered, chaotic performance in Baltimore.
Chicago, on the other hand, recovered nicely after letting the crummy Seahawks hang around too long in the divisional game; they pounded New Orleans' outstanding offense and chipped away at their defense, and came away with an overwhelming victory, gaining strength as the game progressed. They are riding more momentum; they have a better defense; and in one of the NFL's more peculiar jinxes, a dome team still has yet to win a Super Bowl. It'll be close, but I think that jinx will hold.
Final score: Bears 24, Colts 20.
[Update/post-mortem: Feh. Fucking Bears decided to hibernate this time around. Maybe Grossman sucks after all, and maybe someone should explain to Nathan Vasher that tackling is just as important as coverage. And geez, it's great to know God had a vested interest in a football game. Has He nothing at all better to do?]
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