Now that the wild-card games are out of the way (and no real surprises with any of them; although I would have liked to see the Bungles and Colts win their respective games, and thought they had decent chances, the odds were with the home teams), here's a feeble attempt to prognosticate this weekend's divisional matchups. Please, as always, no wagering.
Baltimore at Denver: It would be a nice shake-up to see Ray Lewis and his wrecking-crew defense roll into Denver and give good ol' Peyton Manning (aka Rod Flanders) the what-for. And despite my prediction at the beginning of the season that Flanders would be an injury-prone bust, just one hit from the IR list, he's had a career season, and the Donks appear to be a proverbial team of density. Denver's D has also improved, just as Baltimore's offense has crumbled; even replacing OC Cam Cameron didn't fix the fact that they don't really have a deep-threat receiver to take pressure off mighty-mite RB Ray Rice. As long as Flanders is in the game, it belongs to Denver.
Prediction: Denver 38, Baltimore 20.
Green Bay at San Francisco: Credit Jim Harbaugh for taking a crummy team with a powerhouse defense, and giving it an offense that could at least pull its weight. Critical injuries in the Niner D became exposed against Seattle a couple weeks ago, and the Packers have a better QB and better WRs than the Seahawks. The Pack also have a porous o-line; Green Bay gave up the third-most sacks in the league. This may come down to whether all-world sack machine Aldon Smith is actually hurt or not; if not, Aaron Rodgers will be running for his life, since the Packers have no run game. However, the shenanigans Harbaugh has pulled, first with his starting QB and now with his veteran kicker, are going to finally bite him in the ass, especially when the Bidwills hand Alex Smith a fat contract to start in Arizona next season.
Prediction: Green Bay 20, San Francisco 13.
Seattle at Atlanta: This has been a great year for prodigy rookie QBs, with Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Russell Wilson. The three have somewhat different strengths and skill sets, but all are going to be potent forces for their teams for years to come. All three made the playoffs, but only Wilson made the first cut. With Seattle's ferocious D, featuring a gang of 6'3" Adderall-popping defensive backs slapping down tall receivers like it ain't no thang, all Wilson has to do is minimize mistakes. The Falcons are loaded with talent, but tend to be one of those one-and-done playoff teams, and this looks to be an extension of that pattern. The main question from here is whether Matt Ryan will be sacked or intercepted more; either way, it won't be pretty.
Prediction: Seattle 27, Atlanta 21.
Houston at New England: Given my intense loathing for all things Patsies (mostly loathing at their utterly despicable string of competence, year after blessed year), I would like to like the Texans' chances here. The problem is, they already proved they don't have any, by waltzing into Bawston last month and getting completely dismantled by Tom Brady, who looked absolutely bored by the 4th quarter. Houston lost 3 of its last 4 games to end the season (and barely won that one; rookie phenom Andrew Luck brought the Colts to within 3 points in Houston), and is really the most over-rated 12-4 team in recent memory, despite a talent-laden roster. Arian Foster and Andre Johnson might make it interesting for a quarter or two, but whatever deal Belichick and Brady struck with Mephistopheles on a dark and snowy night seems to still be in effect.
Prediction: New England 44, Houston 17.
So yay, an AFC championship matchup between Brady and Manning. Never seen that before. I think I have to sort my sock drawer that day. Come Super Bowl Sunday, we'll all be Seahawks fans.
Update [1/13/13 6:00 PM PST]: 1 for 4 over the weekend, jeez, you wouldn't know that I ran 80% for the entire regular season on the ESPN Pick'em. Ah well, Atlanta and Baltimore squeaked by on last-second breaks; the only real surprise was how thoroughly the Niners rolled the hapless Packers, who apparently decided to take run-defense pointers from the Raiders.
A certain number of NFL fans would like to see a Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh coaching matchup in the Super Bowl, should San Francisco and Baltimore win their respective conference games on the road. The Falcons look to be fairly easy meat, as long as last night's Niners show up, and while the Patsies are rolling, it appears that Rob Gronkowski re-broke his forearm in this afternoon's game, so Brady will be without one of his more reliable weapons.
Still, the odds, history, and common sense indicate that at least one of the home teams should win, so right now I would tentatively predict San Francisco and New England in the Super Bowl. This is dismaying not just because Patsies again, but because super-tool Randy Moss, now mostly a deep-threat decoy with the Niners, may finally get that ring. Which is his just reward after his shameless, check-cashing indolence set a reeling mid-aughts Raiders team back a couple more years [rolls eyes]. But Colin Kaepernick looks to be a huge talent for San Francisco and their shredding defense for at least the next several seasons, and the Niners would have a much better shot at beating either remaining AFC team than Atlanta would.
Update [1/20/13 8:45 PST]: So it's the Brother Bowl (get ready to get sick of that one over the next two weeks of hype) after all. This should be a good matchup, strength against strength and so on. Joe Flacco, whom the Ravens will probably have to franchise-tag since preseason contract negotiations went nowhere, is having a career year, and actually has the highest QB rating out of all the quarterbacks who made the playoffs.
No doubt the Niners will be the early favorite, but the Falcons showed in the first half how San Francisco can be beaten, by containing Colin Kaepernick for the most part, and stifling the running game for most of the first half. In the end, Atlanta distinguished themselves by doing the exact same thing they did against Seattle last week -- jumping out to an early three-possession lead with their big-play offense, only to derp their way through the second half and let an overmatched opponent that had to travel across the country back into the game. The Seahawks were ten seconds and a decent kickoff from beating the Falcons, and exposed them for the weak-ass, can't-finish-anything-off team that they really are. Shit, the Raiders, who couldn't get out of their own way all season, came within 30 seconds of beating the Falcons in Atlanta in week 6, and in fact, the Falcons beat only two teams that made the playoffs all year.
Anyhoo, the point is that while the 49ers are very good, Seattle would have been more likely to beat them today than Atlanta ever was, and the Ravens' improving offense and big-play defense should ride their emotional wave just enough to get past the surging Niners.
Prediction: Baltimore 37, San Francisco 31.
Baltimore at Denver: It would be a nice shake-up to see Ray Lewis and his wrecking-crew defense roll into Denver and give good ol' Peyton Manning (aka Rod Flanders) the what-for. And despite my prediction at the beginning of the season that Flanders would be an injury-prone bust, just one hit from the IR list, he's had a career season, and the Donks appear to be a proverbial team of density. Denver's D has also improved, just as Baltimore's offense has crumbled; even replacing OC Cam Cameron didn't fix the fact that they don't really have a deep-threat receiver to take pressure off mighty-mite RB Ray Rice. As long as Flanders is in the game, it belongs to Denver.
Prediction: Denver 38, Baltimore 20.
Green Bay at San Francisco: Credit Jim Harbaugh for taking a crummy team with a powerhouse defense, and giving it an offense that could at least pull its weight. Critical injuries in the Niner D became exposed against Seattle a couple weeks ago, and the Packers have a better QB and better WRs than the Seahawks. The Pack also have a porous o-line; Green Bay gave up the third-most sacks in the league. This may come down to whether all-world sack machine Aldon Smith is actually hurt or not; if not, Aaron Rodgers will be running for his life, since the Packers have no run game. However, the shenanigans Harbaugh has pulled, first with his starting QB and now with his veteran kicker, are going to finally bite him in the ass, especially when the Bidwills hand Alex Smith a fat contract to start in Arizona next season.
Prediction: Green Bay 20, San Francisco 13.
Seattle at Atlanta: This has been a great year for prodigy rookie QBs, with Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Russell Wilson. The three have somewhat different strengths and skill sets, but all are going to be potent forces for their teams for years to come. All three made the playoffs, but only Wilson made the first cut. With Seattle's ferocious D, featuring a gang of 6'3" Adderall-popping defensive backs slapping down tall receivers like it ain't no thang, all Wilson has to do is minimize mistakes. The Falcons are loaded with talent, but tend to be one of those one-and-done playoff teams, and this looks to be an extension of that pattern. The main question from here is whether Matt Ryan will be sacked or intercepted more; either way, it won't be pretty.
Prediction: Seattle 27, Atlanta 21.
Houston at New England: Given my intense loathing for all things Patsies (mostly loathing at their utterly despicable string of competence, year after blessed year), I would like to like the Texans' chances here. The problem is, they already proved they don't have any, by waltzing into Bawston last month and getting completely dismantled by Tom Brady, who looked absolutely bored by the 4th quarter. Houston lost 3 of its last 4 games to end the season (and barely won that one; rookie phenom Andrew Luck brought the Colts to within 3 points in Houston), and is really the most over-rated 12-4 team in recent memory, despite a talent-laden roster. Arian Foster and Andre Johnson might make it interesting for a quarter or two, but whatever deal Belichick and Brady struck with Mephistopheles on a dark and snowy night seems to still be in effect.
Prediction: New England 44, Houston 17.
So yay, an AFC championship matchup between Brady and Manning. Never seen that before. I think I have to sort my sock drawer that day. Come Super Bowl Sunday, we'll all be Seahawks fans.
Update [1/13/13 6:00 PM PST]: 1 for 4 over the weekend, jeez, you wouldn't know that I ran 80% for the entire regular season on the ESPN Pick'em. Ah well, Atlanta and Baltimore squeaked by on last-second breaks; the only real surprise was how thoroughly the Niners rolled the hapless Packers, who apparently decided to take run-defense pointers from the Raiders.
A certain number of NFL fans would like to see a Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh coaching matchup in the Super Bowl, should San Francisco and Baltimore win their respective conference games on the road. The Falcons look to be fairly easy meat, as long as last night's Niners show up, and while the Patsies are rolling, it appears that Rob Gronkowski re-broke his forearm in this afternoon's game, so Brady will be without one of his more reliable weapons.
Still, the odds, history, and common sense indicate that at least one of the home teams should win, so right now I would tentatively predict San Francisco and New England in the Super Bowl. This is dismaying not just because Patsies again, but because super-tool Randy Moss, now mostly a deep-threat decoy with the Niners, may finally get that ring. Which is his just reward after his shameless, check-cashing indolence set a reeling mid-aughts Raiders team back a couple more years [rolls eyes]. But Colin Kaepernick looks to be a huge talent for San Francisco and their shredding defense for at least the next several seasons, and the Niners would have a much better shot at beating either remaining AFC team than Atlanta would.
Update [1/20/13 8:45 PST]: So it's the Brother Bowl (get ready to get sick of that one over the next two weeks of hype) after all. This should be a good matchup, strength against strength and so on. Joe Flacco, whom the Ravens will probably have to franchise-tag since preseason contract negotiations went nowhere, is having a career year, and actually has the highest QB rating out of all the quarterbacks who made the playoffs.
No doubt the Niners will be the early favorite, but the Falcons showed in the first half how San Francisco can be beaten, by containing Colin Kaepernick for the most part, and stifling the running game for most of the first half. In the end, Atlanta distinguished themselves by doing the exact same thing they did against Seattle last week -- jumping out to an early three-possession lead with their big-play offense, only to derp their way through the second half and let an overmatched opponent that had to travel across the country back into the game. The Seahawks were ten seconds and a decent kickoff from beating the Falcons, and exposed them for the weak-ass, can't-finish-anything-off team that they really are. Shit, the Raiders, who couldn't get out of their own way all season, came within 30 seconds of beating the Falcons in Atlanta in week 6, and in fact, the Falcons beat only two teams that made the playoffs all year.
Anyhoo, the point is that while the 49ers are very good, Seattle would have been more likely to beat them today than Atlanta ever was, and the Ravens' improving offense and big-play defense should ride their emotional wave just enough to get past the surging Niners.
Prediction: Baltimore 37, San Francisco 31.
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