The Next Generation

John Robb at Global Guerrillas has been patiently, expansively defining the changing terms of the insurgent campaign in Iraq, to the point where he has made a pretty good case for the distinctions of fifth-generation warfare (5GW), as the decentralization of communities and loyalties have reverted to primary allegiances, thus making the fighters and their networks harder to effectively combat.

And the recent episode of the two Blackwater helicopters being brought down, and five private contractors murdered, show that while the Sunni and Shi'a are mainly fighting each other, they are still taking the time to target us. Most disconcerting is the increasing level of sophistication in these assaults. Suicide bombers are for the open-air marketplaces and such. They cannot get military personnel using those methods, so this is what they're doing:

• Hook. A State Department official protected by a Blackwater PSD (personal security detail) convoy was attacked.


• Line. QRF (quick reaction force) ground teams were dispatched from the Green Zone to relieve the convoy. These teams were ambushed. One retreated and the others were halted.


• Sinker. Two Blackwater Boeing Little Birds (small helicopter gunships) were dispatched to provide support. One was shot down and the other was damaged and forced to return to base. Recovery teams found the four bodies (one more died on the other helo that returned to the green zone) from the helicopter crash were stripped of their weapons.

IraqSlogger has the details.

The Blackwater Little Birds are a familar sight above the skies of Baghdad. The tear drop shaped black helicopters with fly erratic patterns to avoid ground fire as they swoop and twirl around PSD moves below. Typically the former military pilots fly fast and just above roof level unlike the heavier Army Blackhawk helicopters which fly low and heavy, making easy targets for insurgents. The Blackwater Little Birds were originally brought into Iraq to be part of Paul Bremer's security detail. They stayed to provide an important security option to the many State Dept details the company is contracted to move and protect. There have been numerous hits by ground fire (including an AK bullet that went right through one pilot's ankle and missed the bones)

Once the Little Birds engaged the insurgents, one door gunner was killed and the rotor blades were damaged, and it returned to base. Another Little Bird was shot down instantly killing all four aboard. The shoot down and crash was described as quick and no radio call was sent before impact. The former 160th and army pilots working for Blackwater are famous for their low-level, high speed flights above Baghdad's rooftops. A tactic designed to avoid small arms fire. The previous event that brought them to the media's attention was the resupply of ammo and return of a wounded marined during the siege of an Najaf in the April of 04 as recounted in "Licensed to Kill, Hired Guns in the War on Terror"

The five dead mentioned include the one door gunner and the entire crew of the relief Little Bird. There are also unconfirmed reports of additional casualties among the Blackwater security detail on the ground.

One very important aspect of the coverage of the war that has been chronically under-reported involves the roles and responsibilities -- and level of accountability -- of private military contractors.

It's something of a boondoggle -- there are thousands of them there, many of them making six figures, on the taxpayers' dime. Many are on high-level security details, making five or six times what Army personnel make for the same job.

Others are involved in logistical or reconstruction efforts, many of these brought in from the Philippines and elsewhere, to a country where unemployment is north of 60% in most parts, and the populace, seeing the only available jobs going to foreigners, become increasingly embittered about the whole situation.

Thus they are now devising these little hit-and-run missions, luring contractors and service personnel into their traps, forcing them to expend lives and equipment. According to Robb, episodes such as this are presaging the transition to 5GW, and as we've seen extensively for the past four years, we still have not figured out how to effectively combat 4GW without massive, indiscriminate violence.

The biggest danger right now is that the "exterminate the brutes" claque gains more traction as the war of attrition continues. They are correct that we cannot fight with full efficiency with one arm effectively tied behind our backs; what they fail to acknowledge is that unleashing full powers of destruction is also its own war of attrition, and would exhaust the last remaining shred of comity with the rest of the world.

It is a choice between worse and worser, and kicking the surge can down the electoral street, for the next administration to deal with, simply allows the pattern to wear on a little more, and a little more.