Thursday, January 03, 2008

Groundhog Day

My, wasn't that something? So the mythical quadrennial Iowan, stoic watcher of the frozen cornfield, came out in droves for Obama and Huckabee (and apparently Chuck Norris, who must have promised each caucuser (caucusian?) a free Total Gym™). The results are not nearly as surprising as the margins of victory; Obama sprinted away from what looked to be essentially a three-way tie, while Huckabee's ROI must be several orders of magnitude beyond Romney. Weird, wild stuff.

Obviously we can thumb our dicks over either party's performance until the next one, but as the top three Dems seem more evenly matched, and despite my misgivings, I think any of them would be far better than any of the GOP candidates, I want to focus briefly on the latter.

The CW is that Romney's problem is his lack of authenticity which, not coincidentally, is presumed to be Huck's strong suit. This is asinine. Romney's strength is that he's full of shit; the guy just wants to win and make money, and he'll say whatever he thinks will get him those things. What could be more American?

Huckabee is the flip side of this dilemma -- his sincerity, considering many of his positions and convictions, and his bewildering lack of even fundamental foreign policy knowledge (what, lamentably, could also be more American?), is and should be a very genuine liability. So the state evangos decided to turn out for Huck this round. BFD. He has no money, no national presence, no state tracking beyond Iowa, and virtually the entire party apparatus has already condemned him. That little-engine-that-could shit might play out in East Bumfuck, but even notional scrutiny on a larger scale will probably unravel him.

Whatever supposed shot of Viagra Old Man Thompson got the last few days won't sustain him past New Hampshire, and Ron Paul has peaked. McCain will probably take NH, and is still weirdly adored by the media weasels, so he'll remain viable for a while. But this still looks like Romney's race to win, especially if he picks up the next few, McCain fades back a bit, and Romney convinces him to join up as running mate. Lot can happen in a couple weeks.

Best news of all -- aside from the huge Democratic turnout, and disparity between party turnouts -- is that Giuliani has blessedly imploded, finishing a distant sixth, with no promising spots on the horizon. The whole world just exhaled a sigh of relief.

Predicted finishing order for Wyoming Republican caucus: Romney 22%; Huckabee 20%; random farm animal 19%; Ron Paul 15%; Thompson 11%; Ronald Reagan 7%; undecided 5%; Chuck Norris 1%.


cavjam said...

Ludicrously obvious observations - Obama outspent Edwards 3 to 1 in TV money. Edwards was nearly completely ignored by sawdust-filled talking heads pre-caucus. IL is a midwestern state, NY and NC are not. Iowans think blowjobs are part of Satanic rituals.

Ludicrously obvious predictions - there will be a town hall debate in WY during which random farm animal will outshine GOP field. Sometime soon Jesus, garbed in black shirt and jackboots from the new MelG fashion line, will return to campaign for Huck.

Marius said...

Huck's lack of any foreign policy knowledge is stunning, but at least it's not scary, like Benito's (have you read his "position article" a few months ago in Foreign Policy? It was disturbing stuff).

In fact, none of the major contenders for the office of First Magistrate of the Republic -- be they Dems or GOPers -- have any experience or valuable insight with regard to foreign policy. The only exception is Bill Richardson, who's actually conducted negociations with foreign dignitaries, and has talked to people abroad about international problems. But he's not a real contender--unless Hillary wins, after all, and makes him her running mate.

Marius said...

Hey, are you guys OK over there in California? Hope your area didn't get flooded, snowed under, or something like that. Or are you just waiting for Tuesday's showdown in NH?

Take care.