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Thursday, July 03, 2008

Unclear on the Concept

The El Lay Times has an interestingly conjugated simile for our troubled times:

Israel and the United States are starting to look like two anxious children trying to decide how to deal with a schoolyard bully, Iran. Each appears to be whispering encouragement to the other to go kick the bully in the shins, but each is so terrified of the consequences that neither wants to go first.


A more accurate way of putting it is that Israel and the U.S. are a couple of vicious alley punks who have been kicking and teasing a stray animal, and are now concocting a scheme to douse the miserable beast with kerosene and set it afire, and convince any passersby or cops that the animal had them cornered. The editorial's conclusion is essentially correct, but their setup is still wildly inapt. Ahmadinejad's antic bluster, however offensive, is no match for even Israel's military, much less ours. It's not even a knife-to-a-gunfight mismatch; as with Iraq, 99% of the carnage would likely be civilians, this time killed in retaliatory strikes on both sides.

And Russia and China have significant deals with the Iranians. It's not 2003 anymore. If we think we're going to cut them out the way we cut Old Europe out of Iraq, and set up sweetheart no-bids with our own guys, we may be in for an unpleasant surprise. They're holding the cards these days -- ask the Euros how they'd feel about Gazprom shutting the valves this winter. Clearly we gave up on morality some time back, but this is also bad business.

We're going to be seeing a barrage of nonsense and lies this summer regarding Iran, and the one thing everyone should keep in mind is this: we do not have to go to war with Iran; if we do so, it will be because we want to. There is no compelling reason, even if their nuclear program were nearing completion, which by our own estimates it is not. Pakistan has nukes and a virulent anti-American power bloc. Somehow it's not an imminent threat to our very existence. We don't like it, but we find a way to work with it.

Yet rather than even talk to Iran, we simply demand that they capitulate at gunpoint. The mullahs may be assholes, but they're not stupid. They can see by how other players in their region are treated whether or not it's in their interest to continue their program. Threats will only disincentivize a rational actor so much, especially when they can plainly see that you will only follow through if the target looks like a pushover and has something you want.

The purpose of the marketing campaign right now is twofold -- to goad Iran into doing something foolish or reckless, and providing us or Israel with sufficient pretext; and to inure the public to the idea of starting a third war that will almost certainly accelerate the economic catastrophe that has been triggered by oil prices and assorted financial shenanigans. Why would they do this? Why not? Because they can, because they think they should.

Hell, because the idea of chucking a Molotov cocktail over their shoulders as they leave the office of power is like Viagra to them. Because while the smart set likes to tease Obama about how "messianic" he supposedly thinks he is, these guys really think they're on a divinely ordained mission, only it's American Exceptionalism rather than the usual dunderheaded premillenial dispensationalism the megachurch saps roll over for. This is the real deal, the essence of true believerism.

As Obama starts veering predictably rightward, in an effort to flash his security quals to this or that designated peel-off niche of ignorant assholes, you wonder if that'll be enough, or if he wins, will he be boxed in by a December surprise, the action phase of the current gang's long flight forward, and we can all start hoarding gold and ramen and heading for the hills.

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