Sunday, September 18, 2016

Bedwetters' Brigade

A natural result of having a far-too-long electoral campaign season is the spate of "oh shit" sentiments among the faithful, the so-called bedwetters. I'll count myself among the number of folks who find themselves enormously frustrated with the closeness of the polls, while still maintaining a fairly strong conviction that HFC, despite her flaws and over-familiarity, and despite having the media refs basically working against her with their false equivalences and mindless squirrel-chasing, will win. It'll be close, but the math dictates that she should win, in spite of everything.

It's important to recall that at this time in 2008, Obama and McCain were virtually deadlocked; Obama did not start pulling away until after the first debate, and really did not surpass the margin of error until the end of September. And 2012 was even worse -- the Rmoney/Ryan ticket led polling throughout October, frequently exceeding the MOE.

The real source of the bedwetting right now, aside from the unusually high stakes of the election and volatility of the polls, is that the campaign has revealed (or rather, confirmed) two extremely troubling factors:
  1. The media, aside from a few notable exceptions, are too caught up in the "narrative" to check facts, call lies, and maintain a sense of proportion between the two candidates;
  2. There is an even more substantial portion of the electorate that is comprised of racists and/or morons than previously assumed.
Rather than obsessing over the daily poll fluctuations, it's better to look at market averages such as Predictwise and the RCP average of polls, to get a much more realistic picture of what's going on. Right now, HFC is hovering at about 70% chance of getting elected, while the RCP average has her at just +1.5%, which could be cause for alarm, until you factor the above contemporaneous polling from '08 and '12, and remember that the first (and most important) debate is still over a week away. The pendulum will swing again.

One more thing to keep in mind, that I haven't seen mentioned in the media -- while you probably have heard that many potential Drumpf voters are reluctant or embarrassed to admit it, thus skewing the polls, given HFC's unfavorability numbers, there's a pretty good chance that the same phenomenon exists on her side of the fence as well. For example, a married couple where the husband wants him some Clownstick, but the wife really doesn't, she may just be holding her tongue and nodding "yes, dear" until the magic day where she can nullify his vote. I think those two groups, however prevalent they actually are, will end up being roughly equal in size, and thus will cancel each other out.

The "enthusiasm gap" between the two candidates exists, but only in the sense that on the HFC side, you don't have a bunch of borderline retards saying ricockulous things like gawwwd sint ahr candit ta sayve da cuhntree. I may not be enthused for Hillary herself, but I am more than enthused to send Drumpf and his shit-sack of deplorables -- and yes, they are fucking detestable, deplorable, contemptible excuses for oxygen-wasting fucktards, not half but all of them -- back home with their vestigial tails between their legs. I am as enthused about that as I was for voting for Obama in 2008. So take that into your conventional wisdom and shove it sideways, horse-race media.

There's plenty of time to go, it's difficult to conceive of an obnoxious asshole like Drumpf converting any remaining fence-sitters, and he gives HFC's team ad copy to work with pretty much every day. A strong performance by HFC in the debate, and some ad brutality throughout October should turn the tide. It would be nice if more voters were sane, and the media did their job, but barring some major weirdness (I know, I know) the Republic should survive, and send Clownstick and his shitbird family back to their comic-book-villain tower.

If only things went more smoothly, the Drumpfkins might get the massive blowout they truly deserve. But we can live with them just getting beaten.

1 comment:

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