Friday, January 21, 2005

The Poodle Bites (Come On, Frenchie!)

IranMania reports that British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw has pre-emptively dismissed the continuation of the US-UK coalition in the instance of an invasion of Iran [excerpt from end of article]:

Blair's Foreign Secretary Jack Straw has already expressed Britain's wariness at the possibility of war with Iran, saying in November that it was "inconceivable".

"I don't see any circumstances in which military action would be justified against Iran full stop," he told BBC radio.

Jack Straw, why do you hate Freedom?

More [earlier section of article]:

British Prime Minister Tony Blair, whose popularity has been badly dented by his decision to back the US-led conflict in Iraq, would be extremely wary of getting his nation involved in another conflict, added Katarina Dalacoura from the International Relations department at the London School of Economics.

It "would not make sense for them (the British government) to do that, especially given all the flak they have received over Iraq," she told AFP.

"The EU does have a policy on Iran, it has taken specific steps to contain the nuclear issue and reach an agreement," she explained.

"I think it would be very damaging to relations between Britain and its European partners if they were to go along with the Americans on this... I think Blair would draw a line on Bush, even though he may of course not do it as openly."

Actually, I tend to believe that, at least for now, the Bush claque believes this as well, and they're just engaging in the usual preliminary sabre-rattling. Hersh's article certainly rings true, but even fanatical idealists understand at some point the immutable fact that our armed forces have been greatly attenuated in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Iran has more people than both of those countries combined. As Iraq has shown, even the proverbial "low-hanging" fruit, tempting as it may have seemed, had a bit of an unpredictable kick.

So unless they're remarkably stupid (which, sadly, is entirely possible), it's much more likely that a missile attack, or series of them, is in the works, rather than a full-on ground invasion. Clearly, though, without a damned good set of reasons and evidence -- not just some blurry satellite photo Colin Powell pulls out of his ass to jibe with some doctored Italian yellowcake receipts -- this will alienate us from our allies, once and for all.

Not only that, the marketing campaign that would be required to sell an Iran war to the American people would finish what this mendacious crowd has started, and rip this nation asunder. It would have to; the only way to sell this newer, bigger pig-in-a-poke is to ratchet up everything -- fear, paranoia, xenophobia, our sense of entitlement to as much oil as we damned well please -- all of it.

Make no mistake. The mullahs are not good guys. And the reform movement in Iran has sadly taken too long to incubate into full flower, and might be kept down for yet another generation. But that's a far cry from bombing a population center -- which is what it would take pretty quickly, as the mullahs won't just sit back and let us pick off a few of their missile silos unanswered.

So. Any conservatives still want to put all your money on Condi Rice to handle this? Frankly, I cannot see how anything she's "accomplished" warrants anything but a no-confidence vote.


vonKreedon said...

Given the faith based policy making coming out of this administration I would expect that we will see bunker-busting bombs dropped on selected targets that have been eyeballed by Hersh's reported Special Ops teams.

And you're right, even the Brits will cut us off at that point.

vonKreedon said...

Another thing I just noticed: White House Scraps 'Coalition of the Willing' ListWe've gone from a 45 member "Coalition of the Willing!" to a 28 member "Coalition of the Dwindling"

Heywood J. said...

Hey, von Kreedon! Long time no see, hope you stick around.

vonKreedon said...

Hey there Cart, as I said in an earlier comment (mistakenly written as "Reid"), the name of this blog totally rocks and then of course there is your unique brand of cheerfully contrarian leftist commentary. Keep it up.

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